Projecting Duke football's 2026 season using ESPN Football Power Index

Duke enters the 2026 college football season with a lot to prove despite coming off back-to-back nine-win seasons, including an ACC title last season.

The Blue Devils had to find replacements for several key players, including quarterback Darian Mensah and last year’s leading receiver, Cooper Barkate, who both entered the transfer portal and signed with Miami. 

Entering his third season, Manny Diaz has turned Duke around and, at the same time, seen his coaching stock rise by leading the Blue Devils to 18 wins in the first two seasons. 

But how will the 2026 season play out for Diaz and his squad? While the game isn’t played on paper, here’s how ESPN’s Football Power Index sees the schedule going for the Blue Devils and the chances of them winning each game.

(Ratings as of Monday, August 31.)

Week 1: Tulane - 61.9 percent

The Blue Devils open the season with a rematch of last year's loss to the Green Wave in New Orleans.

Week 2: at Illinois - 33.6 percent

Illinois took advantage of several turnovers by the Blue Devils last season, pulling away for a 45-19 victory in Durham.

Week 3: Stanford - 72.5 percentWeek 4: William & Mary - 96.5 percentWeek 6: at Georgia Tech - 41.4 percent

The Blue Devils will look to avenge last year's defeat to the Yellow Jackets.

Week 7: UNC - 48.2 percent

Bill Belichick's second season in charge of the Tar Heels started out with a 15-10 win over TCU in Dublin, Ireland.

Week 8: at Virginia - 25.2 percent

A rematch of last year's ACC title game in which the Blue Devils pulled out a victory in overtime. The Cavaliers routed NC State 34-8 in their season opener.

Week 9: Boston College - 74.5 percentWeek 10: @ NC State - 59.7 percent

The Wolfpack looked in shambles in their opening game, dropping to UVA 34-8.

Week 11: @ Miami - 7.2 percent

The game circled on everyone's calendar as Duke takes on former quarterback Darian Mensah and wide receiver Cooper Barkate, who hope to lead the Hurricanes back into the College Football Playoff.

Week 12: Clemson - 27.5 percent

A two-point conversion with 13 seconds left delivered an upset victory for Duke last season at Clemson.

Week 13: @ Wake Forest - 44.8 percent

The Demon Deacons silently won nine games last season in Jake Dickert's first year in charge.

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This article originally appeared on Duke Wire: Projecting Duke football's 2026 season using ESPN Football Power Index