The days of Clemson dominating the ACC Championship appear to be over.
From 2015 to 2022, the Tigers won seven of eight ACC titles during the peak of Dabo Swinney’s dynasty at CU. But with the transfer portal upending the college football landscape and the ACC ending divisions at the start of the 2023 season, the conference title has opened up. The league has had a different winner each of the last three seasons, and last year’s champion was its most shocking. Duke won its first ACC title in the conference-championship era after finishing the 2025 regular season at 7-5 and winning the five-way tiebreaker for second place.
This season should be a lot different for the ACC. For starters, the conference redid its tiebreaker policy in the event of another logjam. On the field, the conference seems to be a one-horse race. According to FanDuel, the Hurricanes are the odds-on favorite to win the ACC at -150, the highest odds to win a P4 conference (Texas Tech is -105 to win the Big 12). However, a second tier has plenty of firepower and is looking to upset Miami. Louisville and SMU, each ranked in the AP Preseason top 25, are tied for second to win the ACC at +750. Although SMU returns starting QB Kevin Jennings, both teams must replace a majority of starters from their nine-win seasons in 2025, but they should be two of the more high-powered offenses in college football this season.
Behind SMU and UL, Clemson sits at +1600 after finally utilizing the portal in the offseason. However, they are starting a quarterback with only one collegiate start under his belt, Christopher Vizzina, who backed up Cade Klubnik for the last three years.
The favorite: MiamiIf Miami did not win the ACC this season, it would be a shock. After going to the national championship last year, Mario Cristobal did an excellent job blending his lineup, full of returning starters and high-value transfers.
On the offensive side of the ball, Darian Mensah takes over for Carson Beck at quarterback after becoming one of the most expensive portal pickups this offseason. Although it will be Mensah’s third school in three years, his arm and accuracy will translate perfectly with Miami’s receiving corps, headlined by All-American Malachi Toney. Alongside Toney, Miami secured Duke transfer WR Cooper Barkate, Mensah’s teammate last season, to create a potent punch on the outside. The Canes also return Mark Fletcher Jr. and Jordan Lyle at running back, providing a 1-2 punch on the ground. The main question for Miami will be how they replace four starters on a dominant offensive line from a year ago, but five-star freshman Jackson Cantwell should go a long way toward solving that problem for Cristobal.
On defense, the Canes followed a similar blueprint. Damon Wilson, a transfer from Missouri who projects as a first-round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft, joins a stacked defensive line full of returning talent, such as Justin Scott and Ahmad Moten Sr. On the back end, DB OJ Frederique Jr. comes back for his junior year to form a standout pair with DB Xavier Lucas at cornerback. Two years after UM’s defense ruined Cam Ward’s chances of going to the College Football Playoff, defensive coordinator Corey Hetherman has installed a dominant unit for the second-straight season.
The dark horse: Virginia TechIt might be a transition year for new Virginia Tech head coach James Franklin in his first season in charge in Blacksburg, but at +2500 to win the ACC, according to FanDuel, crazier things have happened.
Franklin did an excellent job of supplementing VT’s roster with talent rather than overhauling the entire program. Although the former Penn State head coach brought in his former QB, Ethan Grunkemeyer, the Hokies are projected to return eight starters on offense from last year. On defense, Kemari Copeland, who ranked seventh on The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman’s annual freaks list, anchors a unit that will have a familiar voice leading them: former head coach Brent Pry. The Hokies are certainly young in the back seven, but Franklin tried to remedy that issue by taking three defensive backs out of the portal.
Maybe the most challenging hurdle facing VT this season is their ACC schedule. Virginia Tech goes on the road to Clemson, SMU, and Miami, three of the four teams with the best odds of winning the conference. However, if the Hokies can steal one of those two games, watch out for Franklin’s revenge in his first year coaching in the ACC.
Florida State’s odds: Not greatIn the bottom half of FanDuel’s ACC conference champion odds, Florida State sits tied for tenth with Cal to win the conference at +4000. It feels almost impossible that the Minnesota Vikings have the same odds of winning the Super Bowl as the Noles do of winning the ACC, but head coach Mike Norvell must replace a ton of starters from a team that just went 5-7 a year ago. The Seminoles will start Ashton Daniels at quarterback, FSU’s fourth different starting quarterback in four years, and will hope that the five-year collegiate veteran will be able to put it all together in his final year of eligibility.
Florida State will also trot out a brand-new offensive line after finishing 11th in the country in rushing yards per game in 2025. There are a couple more sure things on the defensive side of the ball, including the expected jump of Mandrell and Darryll Desir from their exceptional freshman campaigns in 2025. But with question marks at almost every position group and the hardest schedule in the ACC, including road games against Louisville and Miami, Norvell’s program has a hard climb ahead of it to get to bowl eligibility, let alone a December game in Charlotte.
2026 ACC Championship odds- Miami Hurricanes: -150
- Louisville Cardinals: +750
- SMU Mustangs: +750
- Clemson Tigers: +1500
- Virginia Cavaliers: +2000
- Pittsburgh Panthers: +2200
- Virginia Tech Hokies: +2500
- NC State Wolfpack: +2500
- Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets: +3500
- California Golden Bears: +4000
- Florida State Seminoles: +4000
- Duke Blue Devils: +7000
- Wake Forest Demon Deacons: +8000
- Syracuse Orange: +10000
- North Carolina Tar Heels: +12500
- Stanford Cardinal: +40000
- Boston College Eagles: +40000
via SP+
Miami
- Avg. conf wins: 7.5
- 6+ win percentage: 99.9%
- 11+ win percentage: 28.1%
SMU
- Avg. conf wins: 6.0
- 6+ win percentage: 95.7%
- 11+ win percentage: 3.4%
Louisville
- Avg. conf wins: 5.9
- 6+ win percentage: 92.9%
- 11+ win percentage: 3.7%
Clemson
- Avg. conf wins: 5.1
- 6+ win percentage: 94.2%
- 11+ win percentage: 2.9%
Va. Tech
- Avg. conf wins: 4.9
- 6+ win percentage: 88.3%
- 11+ win percentage: 1.2%
Virginia
- Avg. conf wins: 4.8
- 6+ win percentage: 87.7%
- 11+ win percentage: 1.5%
NC State
- Avg. conf wins: 4.7
- 6+ win percentage: 81.2%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.7%
Pittsburgh
- Avg. conf wins: 4.5
- 6+ win percentage: 82.1%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.7%
Duke
- Avg. conf wins: 4.4
- 6+ win percentage: 73.2%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.4%
California
- Avg. conf wins: 4.1
- 6+ win percentage: 63.0%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.2%
Ga. Tech
- Avg. conf wins: 4.1
- 6+ win percentage: 64.7%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.1%
Florida St.
- Avg. conf wins: 4.0
- 6+ win percentage: 76.4%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.4%
Wake Forest
- Avg. conf wins: 3.6
- 6+ win percentage: 66.5%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.2%
N. Carolina
- Avg. conf wins: 3.1
- 6+ win percentage: 43.9%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.0%
Syracuse
- Avg. conf wins: 2.9
- 6+ win percentage: 24.7%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.0%
Stanford
- Avg. conf wins: 2.4
- 6+ win percentage: 13.4%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.0%
Boston Coll.
- Avg. conf wins: 2.3
- 6+ win percentage: 15.0%
- 11+ win percentage: 0.0%
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