Next Saturday will mark the very first game of the Will Stein era with Kentucky Football after replacing long-time head coach Mark Stoops this offseason.
It will also mark the beginning of the Kenny Minchey era at quarterback, as the senior transfer from Notre Dame gets his first collegiate start. Stoops went 10-3 in 2021 with Liam Coen as offensive coordinator, but things went downhill from there, with Kentucky going 7-6 in 2022, 7-6 in 2023, 4-8 in 2024, and 5-7 in 2025.
A major reason for the decline was the Wildcats’ struggles on offense. Kentucky finished 14th in total offense in 2022 out of 14 SEC teams at the time, 11th out of 14 in 2023, 15th out of 16 in 2024, and 14th in 2025.
Stein was brought in to fix the offense, and his track record suggests he has the experience to do so. Oregon’s offense finished second in the Big Ten in total yards per game in 2025, first in the Big Ten in 2024 and first in the Pac-12 in 2023. Once he got the job, Stein immediately went to work rebuilding Kentucky’s offense, with improvements coming along the offensive line, at wide receiver, and at quarterback.
On the other side, the Wildcats hope the defense can remain nearly as strong as it has been in recent seasons thanks to a host of key returnees, highlighted by preseason All-SEC safety Ty Bryant.
Kentucky’s over/under for wins this season is 4.5, according to FanDuel Sportsbook. A big reason for that low number is that the Cats are currently slated to play seven(!) preseason top-25 teams. That means just getting to six wins would require Kentucky to beat a preseason top-25 club at some point.
Here is how I believe the Wildcats’ 12-game schedule will play out.
GAME 1: YOUNGSTOWN STATESaturday, Sept. 5 | 1 p.m. ET | Kroger Field
Although Youngstown State is one of the better programs in the FCS, this game should not be close. Youngstown State does have Beau Brungard, who enters his final season coming off a historic 2025 campaign in which he won the Walter Payton Award as the top offensive player in the FCS. He threw for 3,230 yards and 26 touchdowns while rushing for 1,486 yards and 27 touchdowns last season.
However, Kentucky should have far too much talent, especially at home. Last year, Tennessee Tech came into Kroger Field at 10-0 hoping to defeat an average Kentucky team, but the Wildcats dominated, 42-10. I expect a similar result this time around, with Kenny Minchey having a big game before the lead becomes large enough for the backups to enter.
Prediction: Kentucky 49, Youngstown State 13 — Kentucky W
GAME 2: ALABAMASaturday, Sept. 12 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Kroger Field
This game should be electric and will be the first major test for Stein and Minchey. The biggest advantage Kentucky has is that the game will be played at Kroger Field, with the Kentucky fanbase behind the team. The Wildcats have not defeated Alabama since 1997, when Kentucky won 40-34 in overtime in Lexington.
Even with the home-field advantage, I just think Alabama will continue to be Alabama. The Crimson Tide may not be nearly as dominant as they were under Nick Saban, but I still expect them to leave Lexington with a win. Kentucky should be able to keep it somewhat close, especially with Alabama sophomore quarterback Keelon Russell preparing for his first true road game.
We saw Kentucky make life difficult for former Ole Miss quarterback Austin Simmons in his first true road environment in Lexington, as he threw two early interceptions and was eventually benched for Trinidad Chambliss. However, Kalen DeBoer cannot afford to lose this game, and I don’t believe he will.
Prediction: Alabama 34, Kentucky 20 — Kentucky L
GAME 3: TEXAS A&MSaturday, Sept. 19 | 3:30 p.m. ET | Kyle Field — College Station, Texas
It doesn’t get any easier for Kentucky, as the Wildcats will travel to Texas A&M for Stein’s first road game as head coach and Minchey’s first true SEC road environment. This will be a major test for a Kentucky team that will have already faced Alabama the week before.
I think the Wildcats will struggle in their first major road test against a talented Texas A&M team and a rowdy crowd at Kyle Field. The last time these two teams played was in 2018, when Kentucky nearly pulled off the victory before falling 20-14, but I don’t think this one will be quite as close.
Prediction: Texas A&M 30, Kentucky 13 — Kentucky L
GAME 4: SOUTH ALABAMASaturday, Sept. 26 | 12:45 p.m. ET | Kroger Field
After a rough two weeks, Kentucky finally gets a game it can use to regain some confidence. The Wildcats return home after playing two difficult games against Alabama and Texas A&M, and this should give Stein and his team a chance to reset.
This should be another game that is not particularly close, with Kentucky having a significant advantage at home. I expect the offense to have a big day and Minchey to continue becoming more comfortable in the new system. Kentucky cruises to an easy victory.
Prediction: Kentucky 56, South Alabama 7 — Kentucky W
GAME 5: SOUTH CAROLINASaturday, Oct. 3 | Williams-Brice Stadium | Time TBD
Kentucky will have another true road test, but I think the Wildcats will be much more comfortable playing away from home after going through the Texas A&M environment two weeks earlier. The biggest issue will be South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers, who has had plenty of success against Kentucky. In 2024, Sellers went 10-of-14 for 166 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in South Carolina’s 31-6 win over Kentucky at Kroger Field. Last season, Sellers went 11-of-14 for 153 yards while rushing for 81 yards in South Carolina’s 35-13 victory in Columbia.
Kentucky will be looking to snap a four-game losing streak against South Carolina under head coach Shane Beamer. I believe the Wildcats finally get it done. After already playing one true road game earlier in the season, Kentucky should be more prepared for the environment, and I think Stein gets his first SEC road victory as Kentucky’s head coach.
Prediction: Kentucky 27, South Carolina 23 — Kentucky W
GAME 6: LSUSaturday, Oct. 10 | Kroger Field | Time TBD
The last time LSU came to Kentucky, the Wildcats dominated the Tigers 42-21 in 2021, a game that was later vacated. This year will be different, however, with LSU bringing in Lane Kiffin as its head coach. Kentucky has plenty of recent history with Kiffin, as he led Ole Miss to a 30-23 victory over Kentucky at Kroger Field last season, while the Wildcats shocked the Rebels in 2024 by winning 20-17 in Oxford and ending Ole Miss’ College Football Playoff hopes.
There is also a quarterback storyline, as Stein pursued now-LSU starting quarterback Sam Leavitt to be Kentucky’s starter, but that recruitment did not work out. I expect Kiffin and LSU to come into Lexington with a chip on their shoulder and leave with the victory. This will be another close game, but I think LSU makes enough plays late to hand Kentucky its third loss of the season.
Prediction: LSU 27, Kentucky 20 — Kentucky L
GAME 7: OKLAHOMASaturday, Oct. 17 | Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium | Time TBD
Kentucky has another difficult matchup, as the Wildcats will travel to Norman for a road game, and the environment inside Oklahoma’s stadium will be another major challenge for Minchey and the Kentucky offense.
I don’t think the Wildcats will be ready for the environment in Norman, especially with Oklahoma’s home crowd behind the Sooners. When quarterback John Mateer is healthy, Oklahoma is a difficult team to beat, and I expect the Sooners to take advantage of Kentucky on their home field. There also isn’t much history between these two programs, making this an intriguing matchup, but I don’t see Kentucky pulling off the upset.
Prediction: Oklahoma 30, Kentucky 17 — Kentucky L
GAME 8: VANDERBILTSaturday, Oct. 24 | Kroger Field | Time TBD
Vanderbilt recently announced that Blaze Berlowitz won the starting quarterback battle over true freshman five-star Jared Curtis. Many were surprised by the decision, but Berlowitz came to Vanderbilt when Diego Pavia transferred there and had the opportunity to learn from Pavia over the past two seasons. Berlowitz doesn’t have much starting experience, but that time learning under Pavia could translate onto the field. If he struggles, Vanderbilt could turn to Curtis before the Kentucky game.
Regardless of which quarterback starts, I believe Kentucky’s offense will be too much for Vanderbilt, especially with the game being played at Kroger Field. By this point in the season, I expect Stein’s offense to be much more comfortable in his system, and Kentucky should be able to score plenty of points. The Wildcats will snap their two-game losing streak against Vanderbilt and head into the bye week being .500 at 4-4 on the season.
Prediction: Kentucky 34, Vanderbilt 20 — Kentucky W
BYE WEEKSaturday, Oct. 31
After getting a much-needed win over Vanderbilt, the Wildcats will get a week off before traveling to Knoxville for a major matchup against Tennessee. The bye comes at a good time, giving Kentucky an opportunity to rest before the final stretch of the season.
GAME 9: TENNESSEESaturday, Nov. 7 | Neyland Stadium | Time TBD
Kentucky will travel to Knoxville to take on Josh Heupel and Tennessee. By this point in the season, I expect true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon to be much more comfortable leading the Volunteers. Tennessee will also have the advantage of playing in front of one of the loudest home crowds in college football.
A strong offensive line and an elite running back in DeSean Bishop will give the Vols another major advantage. Kentucky has not defeated Tennessee since the 2020 season, and I don’t expect that streak to end this year. I think the Wildcats will struggle to consistently move the football in Knoxville, while Tennessee does enough offensively to pull away.
Prediction: Tennessee 34, Kentucky 17 — Kentucky L
GAME 10: FLORIDASaturday, Nov. 14 | Kroger Field | Time TBD
This game will carry plenty of emotions for Florida head coach Jon Sumrall, as it will be his first return to Lexington since 2021. Sumrall was on Kentucky’s staff before leaving to become the head coach at Troy, then Tulane, and eventually Florida. He will now return to Kroger Field as the opposing head coach.
With the game carrying plenty of emotions for Sumrall and being played in November, potentially in cold weather, I don’t think the Florida players will hold up particularly well. I don’t expect Kentucky to win by anything close to the 38-7 margin from last season, but I do believe the Wildcats will take advantage of playing at home and cruise to another victory.
Prediction: Kentucky 27, Florida 17 — Kentucky W
GAME 11: MISSOURISaturday, Nov. 21 | Faurot Field | Time TBD
The last time Kentucky played Missouri was in 2023, and many believe that game derailed the Wildcats’ season. Kentucky jumped out to a 14-0 lead, but Missouri responded with a fake punt that helped swing the momentum before eventually completing the comeback and winning 38-21. This time, Kentucky will travel to Faurot Field with a much different team and a lot more experience under Stein.
After going through several difficult road environments throughout the season, I think Minchey, Stein, and the Wildcats will be able to hold off Missouri and its fans. This will be another close game, but I think Kentucky makes enough plays in the fourth quarter to get the victory. The win would make Kentucky bowl-eligible at 6-5 heading into the rivalry game against Louisville.
Prediction: Kentucky 27, Missouri 20 — Kentucky W
GAME 12: LOUISVILLESaturday, Nov. 28 | Kroger Field | Time TBD
Kentucky enters the Governor’s Cup matchup bowl-eligible at 6-5. A victory would give the Wildcats a chance at a better bowl game, while a loss would mean Kentucky has lost to Louisville for the third consecutive season after suffering humiliating defeats in back-to-back years. One major factor is that this game will be played at Kroger Field, where the Kentucky crowd should be extremely loud.
At the same time, there will be plenty of emotion surrounding the rivalry. Stein will have an emotional connection to Louisville, as he played for the Cardinals and later worked on the staff as a graduate assistant and quality control coach working with wide receivers in 2014. I think those emotions could get the best of Stein and the Wildcats, although I don’t expect the game to be nearly as bad as the previous two meetings. Louisville gets the win, but Kentucky keeps it competitive.
Prediction: Louisville 30, Kentucky 20 — Kentucky L
2026 FINAL PREDICTION: 6-6 (4-5 SEC)The Will Stein era starts out on a positive note, as he gets Kentucky bowl-eligible for the first time since the 2023 season. More importantly, Kentucky football will show signs that the program is trending upward under Stein. The Wildcats will also enter the 2027 season with a full year of experience under Minchey, who will have the opportunity to return as the starting quarterback.
Overall, I don’t think this would be a bad first season for Stein. Kentucky would show improvement compared to the previous two seasons, get back to a bowl game, and provide a foundation for what could be a much better second season. A 6-6 record would blow a lot of people away. After what has happened with the program the last two years and the difficulty of this schedule, I would consider this a successful first season for Stein.
What about you? Send us your final record predictions for Kentucky Football in the comments section!
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