Awards futures are where the market pays you to remember. Every summer the book re-prices last year's highlight reel, hands you the same MVP and the same rookie hype at a premium, and dares you to buy the rerun. I'd rather bet what's coming.
Our model doesn't grade storylines, it grades deserved records, who actually played like contenders and who performed to expectations. In 2026, that's the whole board.
Nearly every ticket I like sits on a team our model says ran cold last year, is better than its record and is due to rebound, but is priced like it's still stuck in the mud.
Here is my breakdown of several NFL awards markets, including MVP:
Most Valuable PlayerJosh Allen, QB, Bills (+550)Allen will be QB1 of one of the most talked-about teams in football, so I understand the need to make him the chalk. In fact, at +4 we project Buffalo as a legit upside team overall. But this price is taxing the idea of the MVP.
Allen's issue: Where's his ceiling? What's the median expectation? I'd argue it's already near MVP levels, and to make real noise in the market from there he'd have to pull off some superman-level heroics. Pass.
Joe Burrow, QB, Bengals (10-1)This is the number I keep coming back to. Cincinnati is the most undervalued team on our entire luck board, a full game and a half colder than it actually played, winning six games with a roster we graded like a playoff team. Burrow is also our third-likeliest passing champ. Give a healthy Burrow 17 games with that offense, which everyone agrees has the talent to erupt but just needs to stick it out through a full season, and you've got a resurgence that lands him right in the middle of this race.
A Burrow bounce back is my MVP ticket. Buy.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Chiefs (10-1)Kansas City is the other cold team hiding in plain sight, a clear positive grade buried under a six-win season. At the same 10-1 you're buying the identical profile as Burrow, an elite quarterback on a team our model swears was better than its record. The obvious variable is injury, and whether Mahomes comes back as the player we remember. That could be a massive catalyst for good, but it could just as easily mean performances that aren't worthy of a trophy.
The ceiling is there, but for the price it's not worth the bite in my opinion. Pass.
Offensive Player of the YearBijan Robinson, RB, Falcons (+900)Our third-most-likely rushing champ, and unlike Jahmyr Gibbs he's a true bell cow. Atlanta runs its whole offense through him, and a workhorse on a full snap count is exactly the resume this award pays. Give me the back who gets the ball 40 times a game over the one splitting a backfield in Gibbs. I'm not sold that Atlanta knows what it's doing at quarterback, which only makes Bijan's consistency more important to this offense. If the Falcons do well, this price is a steal. Buy.
Puka Nacua, WR, LA Rams (10-1)Over the last seven seasons, wide receivers have won this award more than any other position, and with Nacua as our most likely receiving-yards champ — playing for a Rams team our ratings peg as the best in the league — this is an obvious click. A quarterback hasn't won this award since 2018, so it's going to a skill guy who has the system to get him the ball and create his own explosive plays. I took a bite at this 10-1 price. Buy.
Offensive Rookie of the YearJeremiyah Love, RB, Cardinals (+300)Short price, but I'm not fighting it. Arizona is a bounce-back team on our board, and a workhorse rookie back stepping into a rising offense is the purest OROY magnet there is, especially given the quarterback situation in Arizona. Volume wins this thing, and Love is walking straight into it. This award hasn't had a direct correlation to team success; more often it's a star inside a rebuild, and Love fits that notion perfectly. Buy.
Comeback Player of the YearKyler Murray, QB, Vikings (+550)Step one is simply getting back on the field. But if Kyler clears that hurdle, he's got the weapons around him to make a real story. His whole career has been a story, the incredible high school run, the twist of elite college football and baseball, the hot start in the league, but it's gone quiet lately.
In a story-based award market, that's exactly the setup I want: Kyler Murray falling right into the funnel of media attention at a great price. Buy.
The board at a glanceAward
Player
Odds
My read
MVP
Josh Allen
+550
Pass
MVP
Joe Burrow
10-1
Buy
MVP
Pat Mahomes
10-1
Pass
OPOY
Bijan Robinson
+900
Buy
OPOY
Puka Nacua
10-1
Buy
OROY
Jeremiyah Love
+300
Buy
CPOY
Kyler Murray
+550
Buy
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