Getting involved in the 2026 NFL playoff and division odds markets is like driving a sports car at top speed: It's simultaneously very fun and very precarious.
Look no further than last year.
Who envisioned the Patriots following back-to-back 4-13 seasons by going 14-3 and unseating Buffalo atop the AFC East?
Who saw the Chiefs sitting at home in mid-January after a run of 10 straight playoff appearances that included nine consecutive AFC West titles, five Super Bowl appearances and three championships?
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And who figured the Panthers' seven-year playoff drought would end with an AFC South title (despite an 8-9 record)?
As always, the most predictable thing about the NFL is its unpredictability.
That, of course, won't stop bettors from jumping into that sportscar and slamming the pedal to the metal — which brings me to my top five NFL playoff and division futures bets to make entering the 2026 season.
Denver Broncos to miss the playoffs (+126)If you saw my NFL win totals article, this one shouldn't come as a surprise.
Simply put, two teams overachieved in a massive way last year, and one was Denver (I'll get to the other one shortly). Not only did the Broncos play just five games against teams that made the 2025 postseason -- going 3-2 in those contests -- they caught division rival Kansas City in an unexpected down year.
Denver also had tremendous good fortune in the injury department. Per Sports Info Solutions, the 2025 Broncos ranked among the five healthiest teams in terms of total points lost due to injury.
It's true that the good luck ended in an AFC Divisional game win over Buffalo, when starting quarterback Bo Nix fractured his ankle late and missed the AFC Championship game. But the point is that the Broncos finished 14-3 and earned the AFC's No. 1 seed partly because two very important intangibles went their way.
Will Denver enjoy optimum health for a second straight year? Highly unlikely. As for the schedule, it is rife with landmines, including 10 games against 2025 playoff teams and another two against the Chiefs, who are once again the consensus AFC West favorite.
Those landmines appear early, too, as the Broncos open at Kansas City, followed in order by the Jaguars and Rams at home, 49ers and Chargers on the road and defending champion Seahawks at home.
It's conceivable that Denver could be 2-4 (if not 1-5) by mid-October. Should that happen, a postseason berth will be little more than an unachievable dream.
Indianapolis Colts to make the playoffs (+170)Last season, Indianapolis won eight of its first 10 games and appeared on its way to ending a four-year playoff absence. Then the bottom fell out.
The spiral began after the team's Week 11 bye with narrow losses to the Chiefs (23-20 in overtime) and Texans (20-16). Then in Week 14, quarterback Daniel Jones -- in the midst of an impressive bounce-back season -- suffered a torn Achilles early in a 36-19 loss at Jacksonville.
The Colts followed those three defeats with four more to finish 8-9 and land outside of the playoff picture for a fifth straight year -- the franchise's longest drought in more than three decades.
WESTFIELD, INDIANA - AUGUST 19: Daniel Jones #17 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a pass during the joint practice against the Atlanta Falcons at Grand Park Sports Campus on August 19, 2026 in Westfield, Indiana. Justin Casterline via Getty ImagesWhy do I expect that drought to finally end this year? For starters, Jones is healthy and leads a unit that last year finished in the top 10 in points, total yards and passing yards (despite having to bring 44-year-old Philip Rivers out of retirement to start three of the final four contests).
In addition to Jones, veteran running back Jonathan Taylor returns after another productive campaign (1,169 rushing yards, 11 TDs in 15 games). Same goes for wideout Alec Pierce (NFL-best 21.34 yards per catch last year) and budding star tight end Tyler Warren (76 receptions, 817 yards as a rookie).
Most significantly, the Colts signed multiple free agents and used five of their first six draft picks to plug holes in their leaky defense.
Indianapolis also resides in a division with two teams that figure to come back to earth in 2026 -- Jacksonville (13-4) and Houston (12-4) -- and another (Tennessee) that is still rebuilding after back-to-back 3-14 seasons.
Finally, the 2026 schedule includes the likes of Washington, Pittsburgh, Miami, the New York Giants and Cleveland.
New Orleans Saints to win NFC South (+270)If the NFL handed out a "never say die" award, last year's plaque undoubtedly would've gone to the Saints.
After a miserable 2-11 start under first-year head coach Kellen Moore, the Saints ripped off four consecutive victories (including three in upset fashion) before falling 19-17 to Atlanta in the finale.
Throw in a 21-17 Week 13 setback at Miami, and New Orleans came within a touchdown of closing on a six-game winning streak.
Time will tell if that late-season momentum carries over to this fall. But one thing we do know is that the Saints appear to have finally found a replacement for Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees.
A second-round pick from Louisville, Tyler Shough struggled through the first half of his rookie campaign before finishing with a flourish. Over his final eight games, Shough racked up 2,080 passing yards (260 per game) and nine touchdowns against just four interceptions.
I expect Shough to take more positive steps in his second year in Moore's system and improve an offense that averaged just 18 points per game in 2025.
I also expect the defense to once again set the tone after ranking ninth overall and fourth against the pass last season. It's a defense that surrendered more than 21 points just twice in the final eight contests.
Most importantly, I expect the NFC South -- which featured a trio of 8-9 teams tied atop the division a year ago -- to be a hot mess once again. And, thus, very much up for grabs.
Buffalo Bills to win AFC East (-130)Buffalo's franchise-record streak of five consecutive AFC East titles came to a halt last season -- but not because the team underperformed. In fact, the Bills (12-5) finished with double-digit wins for the seventh straight year.
Rather, Buffalo was dethroned because New England outpaced expectations by a mile (thanks in large part to one of the cushiest schedules in recent memory). The Patriots' 14-3 mark in 2025 including 13 victories -- yes, 13 -- against opponents that finished with losing records.
The only winning team New England defeated? The Bills, who avenged their 23-20 Week 5 home loss to the Pats with a 35-31 Week 15 win in Foxborough.
This year, the Patriots will be traveling a far more difficult road. In addition to their annual visit to Buffalo (Week 4), they have to trek to defending champion Seattle (Week 1), Jacksonville (Week 3), Chicago (Week 7), Detroit (Week 10), the Chargers (Week 12) and Kansas City (Week 15).
The home slate also features some potential potholes, including Green Bay (Week 9), Buffalo (Week 13) and Denver (Week 17).
In other words, I'm banking on some serious regression from last year's AFC East champs. At the same time, I see no reason why Josh Allen and first-year coach Joe Brady won't have the Bills firing on all cylinders yet again. And if Buffalo can post at least 11 victories for a seventh straight year, it should be enough to reclaim the division crown.
A quick note about the odds-on price attached to this NFL futures wager: It certainly isn't ideal, but it's miniscule compared with Buffalo's -300 division title odds entering last season.
New England Patriots to miss the playoffs (+184)In case you couldn't tell, I'm not high on the 2026 Patriots -- at all.
Last year, this franchise caught every break imaginable, both figuratively (the insanely easy schedule, including two weak playoff opponents in the Texans and Chargers) and literally (Nix snapping his ankle and missing the AFC title game).
Then in Super Bowl 60, against a dominant Seahawks squad, New England finally got exposed. And if the 29-13 loss wasn't embarrassing enough, head coach Mike Vrabel soon got entangled in an off-field scandal that has yet to be fully resolved.
On the positive side, the Patriots provided third-year quarterback Drake Maye some needed weapons with the offseason acquisitions of veteran wide receivers A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs. Also, their 2026 draft class received mostly solid marks. And, of course, they get to face the Jets and Dolphins four times.
However, as previously noted, the rest of the schedule is daunting. And let's not forget that prior to going 14-3 last year -- and having even better injury luck than the Broncos -- New England posted consecutive 4-13 records.
Translation: I think the 2025 Patriots were a fraud. I think the Super Bowl hangover (in this instance) is real. And I think the absolute ceiling for this year's team is 10 wins -- and even then, New England might need to win a tiebreaker to snag a postseason invite.
Add it up, and there is excellent plus-money value baked into this NFL futures wager.
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