The strength of the SEC lies in the eye of the beholder. On one hand, the conference has two inner-circle National Championship contenders in Texas and Georgia, with several more teams primed to push them for CFP spots. On the other hand, the conference who claims “it just means more” has not won a championship in the last three years. Undoubtedly, the balance of power has shifted somewhat northward with Michigan, Ohio St, and Indiana taking the last three titles. Does that mean the trend will continue? If not, who is best positioned to bring the title belt back to the Bible belt?
Texas
The Longhorns were ranked #1 in the country in many polls going into the ‘25 season, but missed out on the CFP entirely, albeit not by much. The conventional wisdom was that Arch Manning and the defense would carry them through their gauntlet of a schedule. Instead, Manning took time to acclimate, playing like a first-time starter early in the season before improving later. And the defense, while very good, was not good enough to carry the offense and Steve Sarkisian moved on from Pete Kwiatkowski to Will Muschamp at DC. The transfer class focused on skill position players, headlined by highlight-machine WR Cam Coleman. There is still more than enough talent on the defensive side to get back to being a top-5 defense if Muschamp clicks right away. Texas needs Manning to live up to his name to reach their ceiling. Only time will tell if that’s a realistic ask.
Georgia
Kirby Smart led the Bulldogs to National Championships in ‘21 and ‘22. In ‘23, they were probably the best team in the country for the bulk of the season, but missed the final four after an upset loss in the CCG. The last two years, they have remained great, though a small step below the true inner circle of championship contenders. Is this year’s team top-2 or more like top-5? If one thing has changed the last couple of years, it is an offense that has become progressively more conservative. Georgia plays like an elite version of a 1980s team that defends, runs the ball, and moves the chains with short completions. To win that way, the defense has to be basically invincible. Luckily for them, this year’s defense might be on that level. They return 13 of the 18 players who were part of their regular defensive rotation and added some high-end transfers. The Bulldogs are probably the best bet to have the most dominant defense in the country this year, which means they don’t need as much explosion from Gunner Stockton and their exciting RBs.
Texas A&M
While there’s a small step down from Texas and Georgia to the rest of the conference, the Aggies are good enough to win any conference in the country if a few things break their way. Mike Elko enters his third season with his fingerprints all over a defense that helped win 11 games last year. Virtually every important skill-position player is back, as are many of the starters from an excellent secondary. Their offensive and defensive lines are rebuilt, albeit with lots of talent. The main question is whether Marcel Reed can take a step forward at QB after 12 Ints and four fumbles last year.
Alabama
While most Husky fans I talk to can live and let live with Sark at Texas, not enough time has passed for many of them to feel so magnanimous toward the other former Husky coach of an SEC contender. Things have not gone smoothly for Kalen DeBoer in his first two seasons in Tuscaloosa, with eight losses and persistent rumors about unhappy boosters. Now, it looks like a RS-FR QB, Keelon Russell, will start behind an offensive line that will have four new starters. At least the running game is great, right? Oh, right, Alabama basically gave up on the running game over the course of last season. Although there are fewer questions about the defense, it’s not hard to see a scenario where DeBoer and the Tide lose another 4+ games this year and his name is once again bobbing up and down on the coaching carousel.
LSU
How did we get this far without talking about the juiciest drama in the conference? Lane Kiffin went full Hulk Hogan at Bash at the Beach when he dropped the leg on Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss on their way to the CFP. He won’t get much sympathy if he starts slowly in Baton Rouge. With Sam Leavitt (not Demond Williams) at the top of a deep and expensive transfer class, he should have the personnel to succeed. There’s so much talent everywhere on the roster that Kiffin’s biggest challenge might be finding the right combinations and keeping everyone happy. They are good problems to have, but also real issues with a new coach in a new environment.
Prediction: Georgia def. Texas A&M. Defense wins championships. I am putting my chips behind Georgia with the belief that there are essentially zero questions about their defense. I’m taking the Aggies over the Longhorns due to lingering questions about whether Muschamp is the right guy to lead a championship defense. In fact, I think LSU would be next upon my list ahead of Texas.
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