Sports betting is as popular as it has ever been, and one of the biggest betting trends this offseason is win totals. Everybody has strong offseason opinions and thinks they’re smart enough to make money off it, so there are billions wagered on every team’s win totals before the season starts every year.
A team’s win total is exactly what it sounds like. The sportsbooks put out a line, and you bet on whether you think a team will win more or fewer games than that number. For example, the Arizona Cardinals have a 3.5-game win total. If you think they’ll win 4+, you bet the over. If you think they’ll win one, two, or three games, you bet the under.
Remember, Vegas is good at these things. They are incredibly accurate with their predictions, but sometimes they’re a bit off the mark, and I’m here to help you benefit from some of their mistakes.
Here are five teams that will go way over their win total in 2026.
Buffalo Bills: O/U 10.5DENVER, CO – JANUARY 17: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen 17 looks on as players warm up before the AFC Divisional Round game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on January 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA JAN 17 AFC Divisional Round Bills at Broncos EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon132260117133Odds: -120
2025 was one of the worst seasons the Buffalo Bills have had in a while, and they still managed to win 12 games and win a playoff game. Now, Joe Brady is taking over as head coach; they’ve added some much-needed help to their front seven on defense, and they got Josh Allen a WR1 in D.J. Moore. Why would anyone think they won’t win 11+ games this year?
Just looking at their schedule, there are six games I think Buffalo wins pretty much no matter what: New York Jets (2x), Miami Dolphins (2x), Las Vegas Raiders, and Minnesota Vikings. There are also four games I think they’d be 3+ point favorites in: Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Chargers, and Kansas City Chiefs.
The reality is they’ll probably end up losing 2-3 of those games, meaning they’d have to win three of the other seven games on their schedule, and I think that’s doable. Their other opponents are the Houston Texans, Detroit Lions, New England Patriots (2x), Los Angeles Rams, Baltimore Ravens, and Denver Broncos.
I don’t think I’d buy it up to 11.5 (+154), but I feel very confident they’ll hit 11 wins in 2026.
Denver Broncos: O/U 9.5DENVER, CO – AUGUST 16: Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix 10 looks on before a preseason game between the Arizona Cardinals and the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on August 16, 2025 in Denver, Colorado. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA AUG 16 Preseason Cardinals at Broncos EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon132250816142Odds: -115
I can’t believe the Denver Broncos’ win total is set at 9.5 this year. This is the same team that won 13 games last year and was the 1-seed in the AFC, and while they didn’t make many big additions this offseason outside of Jaylen Waddle, they didn’t really lose anybody either.
Denver’s schedule isn’t easy, but it isn’t that hard either. They are way better than the Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders (2x), Pittsburgh Steelers, Miami Dolphins, and New York Jets. That’s seven pretty easy wins right there. And then if you say they split their games against the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs, they’re at nine wins already and just have to beat one more team.
In my 2026 season predictions, I had the Broncos winning 13 games and taking the AFC West again. I just don’t see a world where they don’t win double-digit games. Heck, I’d buy it up to 10.5 (+160) or even 11.5 (+285); that’s how confident I am in this team.
Houston Texans: O/U 9.5KANSAS CITY, MO – DECEMBER 21: Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud 7 after an NFL, American Football Herren, USA game between the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs on December 21, 2024 at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO. Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire NFL: DEC 21 Texans at Chiefs EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon2412211215Odds: -145
I feel like 2025 was the Houston Texans’ floor. Their defense was one of the best in the league – and with everyone returning plus a few additions, they will be again this year – but their offense really struggled with next to no run game. Now, they’ve improved their offensive line and brought in David Montgomery, which won’t only help the run game, but the pass game as well.
Houston’s schedule is harder this year than it was last year, but this is easily a double-digit win team. They should be able to handle the Titans (2x), Colts (2x), Giants, Browns, Commanders, and Packers fairly easily, and they could also sweep the Jaguars. That’s at least nine wins right there, and then I think they’re good enough to win at least three more games.
The Texans are the best team in the AFC if their offense is average this year, so that’s why I’m hammering their over and even buying it up to 10.5 (+130) or 11.5 (+235).
Jacksonville Jaguars: O/U 8.5JACKSONVILLE, FL – JANUARY 11: Trevor Lawrence 16 of the Jacksonville Jaguars warms up before the AFC Wildcard Playoff game between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Buffalo Bills on January 11, 2026 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fl. Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire NFL, American Football Herren, USA JAN 11 AFC Wildcard Bills at Jaguars EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon260111542520Odds: -140
Do I think 2025 was the Jacksonville Jaguars’ peak? Yes. Do I think they could lose both games to the Texans? Yes. Do they have a hard schedule? Yes. But this team is not going to have a losing record this year. They’re simply too talented for that.
Let’s run through their schedule. They could very well start 1-5 with the Browns, Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, and Texans as their first six games, but more likely than not, they’ll win at least two of those. After that, they have a friendly stretch which includes the Colts, Ravens, Titans (2x) and Giants, where they should go 4-1 before they end the season with the Bears, Steelers, Texans, Cowboys, Commanders and Colts. At worst, they should go 3-3 during that stretch.
At the very worst, I have the Jaguars winning nine games, but I think 10 or 11 is much more realistic.
New Orleans Saints: O/U 7.5ATLANTA, GA – JANUARY 04: New Orleans quarterback Tyler Shough 6 throws a pass during the NFL, American Football Herren, USA game between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons on January 4th, 2026 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, GA. Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire NFL: JAN 04 Saints at Falcons EDITORIAL USE ONLY Icon260104111Odds: -120
I am a New Orleans Saints fan, but I think a lot of people would agree that they should win more than seven games this season. I mean, they finished with six wins last year with a harder schedule and a much, much less talented roster.
The Saints had a strong end to the season offensively, and this offseason they strengthened their offensive line and run game with David Edwards, Travis Etienne, and Jeremiah Wright while also improving their passing attack with Jordyn Tyson, Oscar Delp, Barion Brown, and Bryce Lance.
Defensively, they have some question marks, but they were a pretty average defense last year and play in the NFC South, so I’m not too concerned about that side of the ball.
Given that they have one of the easiest schedules in the league, have an offense that could finish top-1, and a defense that shouldn’t finish worse than 20th, I think the Saints win 9+ games pretty easily.
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