As the 2026 NFL season approaches, Baker Mayfield, the quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, has emerged as a significant concern for the team. This comes on the heels of the Buccaneers' inability to reach a contract extension agreement with Mayfield earlier this offseason. The quarterback had expressed a desire to finalize a deal before the commencement of training camp, but with training activities underway, that goal remains unfulfilled.
The lack of a new contract creates a complex dynamic for Mayfield as he prepares for the upcoming season. While the Buccaneers are hopeful that this uncertainty will motivate him to perform at a high level, there are risks involved. Mayfield's performance could either mirror the efficiency he displayed at the start of 2025, or he could overexert himself in an attempt to secure his future, potentially leading to injuries that plagued him last season.
In 2025, Mayfield faced a series of injuries, including a knee sprain, bicep contusion, shoulder sprain, and oblique issue, which severely impacted his performance. The Buccaneers are acutely aware that a repeat of such health problems could jeopardize both Mayfield's career and the team's success. The old adage, 'the best ability is availability,' rings especially true in this context, as Mayfield's compromised health last season resulted in subpar statistics for a player vying for a substantial salary increase.
Adding to the pressure is the Buccaneers' backup quarterback situation. Should Mayfield suffer another injury, the team may have to rely on undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels from the University of Kansas, who has surprisingly secured the backup position over Jake Browning. While Daniels' rise is commendable, the prospect of him stepping in as a starter raises concerns about the Buccaneers' ability to maintain a competitive edge.
When Mayfield joined the Buccaneers in 2023, the organization recognized his determination to reestablish himself as a top-tier quarterback. Initially signed for a modest $4 million, he was later rewarded with a three-year extension worth $100 million, which is set to expire at the end of this season. With the stakes higher than ever, the expectations for Mayfield's performance have also escalated.
Over the past three seasons, Mayfield has averaged an expected points added (EPA) per drop-back of +0.14, placing him in a tie with notable quarterbacks such as Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa. However, this statistic positions him outside the top tier of quarterbacks who have consistently started games during that timeframe. Players like Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson have outperformed him, raising questions about Mayfield's standing among his peers.
Considering the overall landscape, Mayfield may rank around 14th among quarterbacks when factoring in health and situational context. While he has shown flashes of brilliance, the presence of young talents like Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence complicates his standing. As the Buccaneers gear up for the season, the performance of Baker Mayfield will be pivotal to their success and his future in Tampa Bay.
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