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BMW Championship DFS picks 2026: My case for Sam Burns

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Bellerive Country Club returns to the PGA Tour schedule to host the 50 players still alive in the FedEx Cup playoffs for the 2026 BMW Championship. Bellerive is a classic Robert Trent Jones Sr. parkland design that opened in the western suburbs of St. Louis in 1960. The course immediately established itself as a championship venue, hosting the 1965 U.S. Open only five years after opening, followed by the 1992 PGA Championship, 2008 BMW Championship and the 2018 PGA Championship.

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Bellerive’s strongest characteristics are its scale and the way the terrain influences play. The course has spacious fairways, but many are sloped toward bunkers or rough, while the large greens are divided by significant ridges and tiers that can turn a seemingly good approach into a difficult two-putt. Water comes into play on eight holes, most notably the lake created along the second, while the creek that winds through the property becomes increasingly important late in the round. The stretch from the 14th through the 17th, known as “The Ridge,” rises above much of the property and has long been regarded as the defining sequence of the course.

Bellerive is scheduled to play as a 7,448 yard par 70, making it one of the longer courses the PGA Tour players will see during the season. In 2019, six holes were lengthened and the greens were completely rebuilt. The hope is that it will play firmer and faster than in 2018 when Brooks Koepka won at 16 under on a rain-soaked course.

The BMW Championship is a no-cut playoff event that features the top 50 players in the FedEx Cup standings, making this one of the smallest and strongest fields on the PGA Tour. Scottie Scheffler enters Bellerive at No. 1 after winning the FedEx St. Jude Championship, followed by Matt Fitzpatrick, Cameron Young, Si Woo Kim and Wyndham Clark. The top 10 is rounded out by Sam Burns, Chris Gotterup, Tommy Fleetwood, Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Aberg, with numerous other major championship contenders also in the field. The top 30 in the standings at the conclusion of the week will move on to the Tour Championship next week in Atlanta.

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Here are my favorite plays and fades in each price range for DraftKings contests for the 2026 BMW Championship. $9,000+ range Play: Sam Burns, $10,400

Burns has been one of the most consistent players in this field all season, and his recent form suggests another strong finish could be coming. Even though he is without a win, he is in the midst of the best stretch of his career where he has finished T-4 or better in four of his last six starts, which includes the Memorial, runner-ups at both the U.S. Open and the Open Championship and a T-3 at TPC Southwind last week.

The underlying numbers are just as impressive. Burns leads the field in approach play over his past 24 rounds, gaining 1.25 strokes per round. Per the Rabbit Hole, he also ranks fourth in the field in performance on longer courses over the past year, a strong fit for Bellerive. His putting has been particularly effective on bentgrass, where he has gained a full stroke per round over the last two years. With Bellerive's large greens giving him plenty of opportunities to capitalize on his elite iron play, Burns brings both current form and significant birdie-making upside to this week.

The top five players in the BMW Championship field on long courses this year.

Sam Burns gains almost a full stroke per round on bentgreens over the past two years.

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Play: Ludvig Aberg, $9,700

Tracy Wilcox

Taking three weeks off after a T-9 at The Open, Aberg showed little rust in Memphis, closing with a 67 to finish T-7. He led the St. Jude field off the tee gaining 4.7 strokes, and he also gained on approach for the 11th consecutive tournament. In fact, Åberg has not lost strokes ball-striking since Pebble Beach in February. His combination of elite driving distance and long-iron play makes him an excellent fit for Bellerive, while bentgrass has also been his best putting surface. With his current ball-striking form and course fit, Åberg has legitimate ceiling potential this week.

Fade: Rory McIlroy, $11,400

I have no doubt McIlroy will deliver a much better performance than last week, when he finished 25 shots off the lead. But given that showing, his status as the second-highest priced golfer in the field, and his own admission that he wasn’t sure he would have enough time to find his swing before Thursday, I’m comfortable looking for better value further down the board.

$8,000+ range Play: Viktor Hovland, $8,800

Stacy Revere

Hovland went head-to-head with Scheffler and came out on top at the Travelers Championship, and he has now finished inside the top 15 in four of his past six starts. The course fit is also strong this week. Over the last three years, Hovland ranks fifth in this field on very long courses, gaining 1.13 strokes per round. He ranks seventh in approach at 0.60 strokes gained per round and leads the field in proximity from 150-200 yards. If he can keep his driving in check, Hovland has the ball-striking profile and upside to contend.

Fade: Maverick McNealy, $8,000

Over the past four months, most of the positive in McNealy’s play has come from his short game. The ball-striking has been a major concern. He has lost strokes in that area in 10 of his past 13 starts, which is not the profile I want heading into Bellerive, where strong play off the tee and on approach will be critical to success.

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Read The Line's Keith Stewart joins Pat Mayo's show to discuss how they're handicapping the 2026 BMW Championship:

Watch the full episode here.

$7,000+ range Play: Michael Thorbjornsen, $7,500

James Gilbert

Coming off his first career win in Detroit a few weeks ago, Thorbjornsen is one of the best values on the slate. Over the past six months, he is the only player in the $7K range to gain strokes across the board in every category. He also ranks inside the top 15 in driving distance, overall proximity, bogey avoidance and par-4 scoring.

$6,000+ range Play: Gary Woodland, $6,600

Stacy Revere

Woodland has already proven he can contend at Bellerive, finishing T-6 at the 2018 PGA Championship with three rounds under 70. His profile remains a strong fit for the course, as he is an elite driver and consistently one of the better par 4 scorers, particularly on longer par-70 layouts. His comeback has continued to gain momentum this year with a win in Houston and four additional top-10 finishes. A major reason for that success has been improved putting, as Woodland has gained 0.27 strokes per round over his last 50 rounds.

Sign up for the industry's leading data tool to make golf stats easy to decipher—head to BetspertsGolf.com now and get access to The Rabbit Hole for only $10 for your first month. Use promo code GD10 at sign up for this amazing deal!

Ron Klos (@PGASplits101 on X) is a PGA Tour data analyst for Betsperts Golf.

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