No one in the fantasy football world has ever denied Breece Hall’s talent. In the right environment, he could be the best running back in fantasy.
Unfortunately, he hasn’t had that “right environment” yet and certainly doesn’t have it in 2026. However, that doesn’t mean he can’t be productive. Should fantasy managers take a chance on Hall this season?
Should You Draft Jets RB Breece Hall in Fantasy Football?Shortly after entering the league, Hall’s talent was evident. As a rookie, it took him merely a couple of weeks to usurp Michael Carter as the lead back. He was averaging 16.4 fantasy points per game before tearing his ACL.
Ironically, the best season of Hall’s career thus far was the year after his ACL tear. Typically, we see running backs struggle in their first year back before truly getting back to 100% the next season. Hall averaged 17.1 PPG in 2023 even though he was very clearly not 100% for the first half of the season.
Since then, it’s been a steady downward trajectory for a back that should still be ascending.
In 2024, Hall averaged 15.1 PPG, finishing as the RB17. Last year, he was at just 13.0 PPG and was the RB20. That is not what we expect to see from a player as gifted as Hall.
From a volume standpoint, we’ve yet to see Hall be truly unleashed. He doesn’t have a 300-touch season on his resume. He came close in 2023 with 299, 76 of which were receptions. But across the last two seasons, he topped out at 276.
Despite being a very good pass catcher, Hall’s receiving role was quite low last year. His 10.9% target share was easily the lowest of his career. It’s a big reason as to why Hall’s fantasy output was poor compared to his 73.7% opportunity share.
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Hall was effective on a per-touch basis, averaging 5.1 yards per touch. It just didn’t matter much when he wasn’t catching passes and playing in an offense that couldn’t score any points. The best fantasy players frequently come from the best offenses. The Jets were 29th in scoring last season. Even though Hall has the starting job and is the best running back on the team, it remains difficult to see how he will overcome his situation.
Hall’s Redraft Fantasy Football ValueWe’ve seen enough from Hall to know the problem isn’t him. But for 2026, the main question is whether anything will be different.
There are some positives. Geno Smith, while far from a top quarterback, will be a sizable upgrade on the triangle of sadness that quarterbacked the Jets in 2025. Say what you want about Geno, he’s way better than Justin Fields, Tyrod Taylor, and Brady Cook.
Most importantly, Smith is not a mobile quarterback. Based on that fact alone, there should be more targets available, as he’s more likely to check it down rather than take off running. It’s pretty safe to say Hall’s floor is what he did last year, likely even higher. The concern is the ceiling.
Another issue last year was the coaching staff. It’s encouraging that the Jets have a new offensive coordinator, but luring Frank Reich out of retirement doesn’t inspire the most confidence. Plus, Aaron Glenn is back, and he is widely regarded as the worst coach in the NFL. The overwhelming consensus in not just the fantasy community but also the NFL world is disbelief that Glenn was brought back.
Glenn has stated multiple times that he wants to use three running backs in his backfield. We can dismiss that as nonsense if we want, but Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis were both involved early last season before injuries forced Hall into a heavier workload. Without the benefit of a favorable offensive situation, Hall needs volume.
All of that brings us to Hall’s 2026 ADP, which is RB17. It’s a reasonable price for a player who has top-five upside in the right conditions, but concerning from the standpoint that we don’t believe Hall has those conditions. Not even close.
Typically, the best fantasy assets come from the best offenses. The Jets have a season-long implied team total of 18.9 points per game. Hall only scored five touchdowns last season. How much more can we project on a bottom-five offense with the risk that he loses goal-line work to the 250-pound Allen?
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Despite the negative sentiment from the above, Hall is my RB14, which is actually three spots above. But that doesn’t mean I’m excited to draft him. It’s more that there’s a drop-off after the top 13 running backs, and Hall is the best one after that. However, he goes in an area of the draft where I am looking at wide receiver.
From a positional standpoint, Hall is where he should be, and I would take him over the running backs there. But in terms of overall, he’s a little pricey for me. Thus, I will be fading the situation unless Hall’s falls below ADP.
Hall’s Dynasty Fantasy Football ValueHall is entering his fifth NFL season and has to get a chance to truly realize his potential. But I still believe that top-five upside exists. We just have to hope the Jets are able to figure out their quarterback situation sooner rather than later.
The good news is Hall is still just 25 years old, and he doesn’t have a ton of mileage on him, either. There’s no reason to think he can’t play at a high level for another four-to-six years. That is a lot of time for any position, but especially at running back.
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If the Jets struggle as much as their win total suggests, they should be in a position to draft a top quarterback next season. They will also undoubtedly have a new head coach who will presumably want to feature his best running back more prominently. That could instantly turn their fortunes around.
We don’t need the Jets to suddenly morph into a top-10 offense. Merely a league-average offensive situation would allow Hall a chance to be a mid-to-high RB1 in fantasy. He is more of a hold/buy than a sell in dynasty.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.
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