Bucs Predicted to be NFC’s 10th Best Team This Season

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers did everything they could to make sure last season's epic collapse and failure to make the playoffs wouldn't happen again this year.

After the offense took a step backwards when Josh Grizzard took over for Liam Coen as offensive coordinator, Grizzard was relieved of his duties. The Bucs replaced him with Zac Robinson, who was previously the OC of the Atlanta Falcons.

In free agency, Tampa was aggressive and brought in several new players. The Bucs signed running back Kenneth Gainwell, who should form half of a lethal backfield duo with Bucky Irving. General manager Jason Licht also revamped the defensive front seven with free agents like Alex Anzalone, Al-Quadin Muhammad, and A'Shawn Robinson.

Then came the draft, where the Bucs added one of the best classes in the entire NFL. Rueben Bain Jr. has become Tampa's most anticipated rookie in years and is the favorite to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Second-round linebacker Josiah Trotter has also looked great since the pads came on in training camp, when he finally could showcase his full skill set. Wide receiver Ted Hurst has consistently been turning heads, and Keionte Scott is expected to be the team's starting slot cornerback.

However, despite all of the new, talented additions, there are still many who doubt the Bucs this season.

That includes Austin Mock of The Athletic, whose NFL Projection Model ranks the Bucs as the 10th-best team in the NFC with only 8.0 projected wins this season. The model also gives Tampa only a 39.2% chance of reaching the playoffs.

Shockingly, the Bucs' win total and playoff projections are the best of any NFC South team. The New Orleans Saints ranked 11th with a projection of 7.8 wins and a 35.1% shot at the postseason. The Atlanta Falcons (7.1 wins, 28.8%) and Carolina Panthers (6.7 wins, 25.2%) finished 14th and 15th.

The division had zero teams finish with more than eight wins a year ago, and is not projected to fare any better this season.

Mock's main concerns for the Bucs are the team's collective age and quarterback Baker Mayfield's unresolved contract dispute, which he believes could become a distraction even though Mayfield has been adamant that it won't.

"The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are favored to win the division, but they're old, and their quarterback, Baker Mayfield, is unhappy that he hasn't signed an extension yet. Perhaps Mayfield will use that as motivation and deliver a big season. If he doesn't, though, maybe he's not Tampa's QB next season."

Mayfield has gone on the record saying he believes the Bucs will "shock a lot of people" this season. Now, yet another person is predicting Tampa will finish the season with a losing record, giving Mayfield and the rest of the team even more motivation.

The same forecasting model predicted the Seattle Seahawks to win only 8.6 games last season, and they finished the year as Super Bowl champions, so I wouldn't get too worked up over the Bucs' projections.

Still, it is hard to see Tampa not finishing this season any better than last year. Yes, the team lost Mike Evans and Jamel Dean, but they didn't have Evans for most of last season as well. In fact, they didn't have most of their offensive starters for much of the 2025 season.

The Bucs should be more fortunate with their health this year, and the upgrades the club has added should make a noticeable difference.

I believe the Bucs are clearly the best team in the NFC South, and should return to the playoffs this season.