Celtics & Jayson Tatum Get Rough 2026-27 NBA Projections, But They've Dispelled These Before originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Certain franchises and fan bases grow immune to wonky preseason predictions because of how long their teams have been perennial title contenders. The Boston Celtics know this exact feeling too well. A lot was said when Red Auerbach, Bill Russell, Larry Bird, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Jrue Holiday, and Kristaps Porzingis left. This pattern now repeats itself after they dealt Jaylen Brown to the Philadelphia 76ers for Paul George and some picks. It's evidenced by the fact that ESPN's Summer Forecast has the organization with the most titles of all-time in the category of squads that are 'disappointing' and 'will take a tumble' this season.
Why should this not be a worry for the team led by Coach Joe Mazzulla and Jayson Tatum? Let's dissect it!
Tatum and Mazzulla's Celtics forecasted by ESPN to have 'disappointing' 2026-27 NBA seasonESPN just released its annual Summer Forecast. Typically, the Celtics end up with projections that say they are frontrunners for the Larry O'Brien trophy, or at least the Eastern Conference title. The projections for the 2026-27 NBA season are not similar to those of previous years.
Because of Jaylen Brown's departure, ESPN says the Celtics are one of the teams likely to take a tumble and disappoint. The pundits' list goes as follows:
1. Los Angeles Lakers32 points2. Detroit Pistons27 points3. Golden State Warriors26 points4. Miami Heat22 points5. Boston Celtics17 pointsYes, Brown was an MVP candidate the Celtics couldn't afford to pay if they wanted the financial flexibility to maintain depth. But proclaiming that the Celtics will have the fifth-most disappointing season is a bit much. In fact, the drop-off might not be much given the prowess of their roster led by Jayson Tatum and schemed around by Coach Joe Mazzulla.
The Brown-George dilemmaFor starters, Paul George and Brown's projected production levels aren't that far apart for the 2026-27 season. Except for their points Per 36 Minutes, the drop-off isn't that drastic. (Underlined statistics are where one player has the edge over the other)
Paul George's 2026-27 Per 36 Minutes ProjectionPTSFG%3P%FT%FGAASTTRBSTLBLKTOVWS/4819.8.437.378.83116.14.25.91.80.52.30.91More: Celtics face uncomfortable Jayson Tatum question in 2030 NBA projection
Jaylen Brown's 2026-27 Per 36 Minutes ProjectionPTSFG%3P%FT%FGAASTTRBSTLBLKTOVWS/4827.1.474.340.78020.95.06.81.10.43.3.130A few observations stand out in these projections. Brown will get buckets, sure, but he'll also take more shots that keep other Celtics from developing their offense. Those 3.8 field-goal attempts per game can be the difference between whether someone like Jayson Tatum, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, Hugo Gonzalez, or Baylor Scheierman can heat up. Often, the Celtics offense also stalled when Brown was the primary point of attack for Coach Mazzulla.
Paul George vs. Boston Celtics 4/30/2026
23 PTS | 8-17 FG | W 106-93 pic.twitter.com/Ezmfc1jMGl
George does not present the same conundrum or liability. He is more efficient in knocking down his three-pointers and free throws while producing more disruptive steals. More importantly, being marginally less turnover-prone is important to the Celtics system because they operate at a league-low pace (94.8, 30th in the NBA), making each possession more important. Moreover, he is also a better schematic fit for the Celtics, as the squad attempted the fourth-most three-pointers (3,456) in the league. This schematic decision by Coach Mazzulla to move further away from drives and live on the perimeter is further evidenced by the fact that they ranked only 25th in the NBA in two-point field goals attempted (3,492).
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It's hard to see a drop-off happen when the Celtics found an X's and O's complement that fits like a glove under Coach Mazzulla's system.
Celtics' bigger pictureFurthermore, the rest of the roster has already proven that they can thrive during the 2025-26 NBA season. Team-wide statistics show that Coach Mazzulla has the right personnel to run his plans at a high level.
Celtics' 2025-26 Four FactorsOffenseDefenseORTGeFG%TOV%ORB%FT/FGADRTGeFG%TOV%DRB%FT/FGA120.8.52311.229.2.167112.7.52311.475.7.1892nd in the NBA4th in the NBA1st in the NBA6th in the NBA29th in the NBA4th in the NBA4th in the NBA27th in the NBA4th in the NBA6th in the NBATo maintain and even surpass their record from the 2025-26 season, the Celtics need to remain true to their identity. George perfectly fits that mold. He can contribute to a high offensive eFG%, as shown by his projected 43.7% field goal percentage and 37.8% three-point percentage. His low turnover-per-game numbers also add confidence that the Celtics can retain their top spot in the TOV% offensive factor. Defensively, his output could even overtake Brown's, given that 1.8 steals and 0.5 blocks make a world of difference when you're limiting an opponent's eFG% and improving the Celtics’ defensive rating.
More importantly, the load on both ends of the floor gets distributed evenly to other Celtics so they can develop. Brad Stevens and Coach Mazzulla know better than to dwell on the past and instead focus on developing their young talents: Hugo Gonzalez, Baylor Scheierman, Neemias Queta, Ron Harper Jr., Jordan Walsh, Chris Cenac Jr., and Amari Williams.
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Even ESPN still projected the Celtics to be a top-five team in the Eastern Conference and within the top 10 in the NBA. (Teams in bold are part of the Eastern Conference)
1. San Antonio Spurs62-202. Oklahoma City Thunder60-22T-3.New York Knicks53-29T-3. Detroit Pistons53-29T-5. Denver Nuggets51-31T-5. Houston Rockets51-31T-5. Cleveland Cavaliers51-31T-8. Minnesota Timberwolves50-32T-8. Philadelphia 76ers50-329. Boston Celtics48-34None of these pre-season numbers are new for the Celtics. The franchise already made unlikely deep postseason runs in the past without being ranked highly over the summer. Look no further than the 2025-26 NBA season when they were projected to have 41 wins due to Tatum's injury. When it was all said and done, they ended up with 56 wins and their fifth-straight Atlantic Division championship.
The Celtics have been here before, just last season actually, so people should know that these narratives are dispelled easily.
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