Cooper Flagg mania continues as the bounty for his Rookie Debut patch grows - we’re talking $4M for this 1/1 rookie card.
Here’s the thing: I think everyone who is paying 10s of thousands and even 100s of thousands for his rookie autograph cards are going to get severely burned in the long run. Why do I say that? Well, let’s take a look at my reasoning in this week’s segment, “Here’s the Thing” brought to you by Jennifer Capriati (but not really).
I’m going to use rough estimates and AI slop to walk through this, so don’t hold me to the exact numbers but you can hold me to the premise of my argument.
First, let’s take a look at some make believe but true-ish numbers. Topps has released 12 “major” hobby and retail products that include Copper Flagg autos, not including their on-demand Topps Now cards which also include autos.
If you factor in the base autograph plus some combination of numbered refractors (i.e. /499, /299. /199, etc. down to 1/1) there is an estimated 15,000+ Flagg autos within those products (according to Gemini) which is not inclusive of any NIL “rookie” autos or on-demand autos.
That’s a lot.
Now if we look back at LeBron James (arguably the greatest of all-time, but certainly the greatest in the post-Jordan modern era) who had exclusivity with Upper Deck which released four products with his rookie autograph on them, he has about 1/3rd the number of rookie autos that Flagg does (again, according to Gemini).
Tap into Kobe Bryant who only has rookie autos with Score Board and/or random high school autos, and we’re talking about even fewer of those than LeBron’s. Granted, those are Score Board unlicensed autos but you can find a copy of those cards for around $2,000 raw - which is basically what you’re looking at for a Flagg Topps flagship auto.
Again, there’s lots of number estimates here but Here’s the Thing (brought to you by Jennifer Capriati… but not really), people are paying more for Flagg rookie autos than they are for LeBron (in some cases) and Kobe and those guys don’t have quite the print runs that Flagg does.
And Flagg doesn’t have anywhere near the greatness of all timey-ness that LBJ and Kobe do (yet). It’s simple supply and demand meets sustained expectations - right, Luka Doncic collectors? The hype is great now but the shine wears off.
Bookmark this email, set a reminder for 5 years from now, and I bet you can get a Cooper Flagg Topps Chrome Future Stars rookie auto (est. $4,200 by ALT) in a PSA 10 for less than $2,000.
The supply will catch up to the pricing - it always does.
We’ll meet back here in 5 years to see if I’m right, deal? Text if you’re running late!
Remember all the fun market booms I’ve tipped you off to? No? Well, anyway, here’s another one that reeks of money laundering – Padel (not Pickleball) prospect Martin Di Nenno has seen his Leaf XRC auto card go from selling for $21 to selling for $408, $408 and $509 in less than a month. This could be something to keep an eye on?
Now, I had no idea who Di Nenno was until like 3 days ago and while maybe this is money laundering action, there might also just be a really cool story here.
Di Nenno, according to “a post I saw on Instagram,” was in a car accident when he was 18 years and was essentially told he would never walk again. Cut to 5 years later, and he’s one of the top Padel players in the world.
His is a story of resilience, which we love, but will his card market sustain this historic rise or will the money launderers who sold his rookie cards ultimately have the paddle of the law rain down on them? Tune into…whatever channel Padel is on… to find out what happens!
This past Thursday, Topps released their first ever (I think?) K-Pop set featuring Jennie. Who is Jennie? No, I’m asking you - who is she? Either way, as we often do on this program, I bought two boxes.
I’ll let you know what I hit. Or, better yet, I’ll share a picture of what I get and you let me know what I hit because I will have no idea.
This is a very cool analysis of print runs of Topps Disney Chrome cards. Spoiler alert: there’s not as many cards out there as we think. Basically there are more Victor Wembanyama Prizm rookies than Disney cards. J/K…I think?
Finally, we just got our first look at 2026 Topps Flagship Football which was released this weekend - and while the Fernando Mendoza craze is about to take off, just remember that for every Drake Maye there’s a Mac Jones peeking around the corner. Spend wisely!
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