Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire understood the odds of defending the Red Raiders’ Big 12 championship when he stepped to the podium at the conference’s football media days last month.
Since the conference was formed in 1996, there have been only two league programs who have repeated as Big 12 champions — Oklahoma had two stretches of consecutive conference championship (from 2006-08, then 2015-20), while Baylor won back-to-back championships in 2013 and 2014.
While Texas Tech is the favorite in many people’s eyes to win the Big 12 again in 2026 and return to the College Football Playoff, it’s far from a guarantee.
“We want to do something that very few teams have been able to do, and that’s to win the Big 12 championship again. You know, I think it’s really important,” McGuire said. “I think it’s really important that this conference gets multiple teams in the playoffs.
“I think there’s an obligation as programs in this conference that we play at a high level, and then I think it’s really important that we win in the playoffs. Until we do that as a conference, then we’re going to continue to have the same narrative that we have right now.”
Count The Athletic’s Stewart Mandel among those predicting that the Red Raiders will not win the Big 12 championship for a second-straight season.
In his Big 12 preview released Tuesday, Mandel not only predicted the win-loss total for each league team this season, he also made 10 projections for the upcoming year.
What does Stewart Mandel predict for BYU in 2026?BYU, in particular, was viewed highly by Mandel. The Cougars went 12-2 last season and were runners-up to Texas Tech in the Big 12 — though the Red Raiders blew them out in two games by a combined score of 63-14.
Mandel predicts that BYU will go 11-1 in the regular season, with an 8-1 conference record, then beat Houston in the Big 12 championship game for the right to represent the league in the College Football Playoff.
BYU comes into the 2026 season ranked No. 14 in the preseason Associated Press top 25 rankings, while Houston is No. 23.
Mandel also projects BYU will upset No. 4 Notre Dame in their Oct. 17 matchup, a spark that will ignite the flame for the first top-10 finish for the Cougar program in 30 years.
“Kalani Sitake has lifted his program to the brink of the Big 12 title the last two seasons, going 23-4. This year, after Sitake turned down Penn State, the Cougars climb the mountaintop,” Mandel predicted.
“With star QB Bear Bachmeier, 1,300-yard rusher LJ Martin and a veteran defense, BYU proves to be the class of the conference and finishes in the top 10 for the first time since Steve Sarkisian was the QB in 1996.”
Mandel is also high on Houston coach Willie Fritz and his red Cougars, who he predicted would finish 7-2 in Big 12 play (and 10-2 overall), ahead of Texas Tech (9-3, 6-3), which finishes in a three-way tie for third.
“Houston’s well-traveled head coach is one of the best in the sport, as he showed when he took long-dormant Tulane to the 2022 Cotton Bowl (and beat USC),” Mandel wrote. “The Cougars quietly won 10 games last year, and veteran QB Conner Weigman will have more weapons around him to propel the Cougars to the Big 12 title game at AT&T Stadium, the site of Fritz’s biggest triumph.”
Head coach Morgan Scalley speaks to Utah’s Wayshawn Parker (1) during a University of Utah football practice held at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City on Saturday, Aug. 15, 2026. | Lukas Katilius, Deseret News What does Stewart Mandel predict for Utah in 2026?Utah comes into the 2026 campaign with a new look and a new head coach — longtime assistant and former defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley.
While there are plenty of high expectations for the Utes, who went 11-2 last season and finished in the top 15, Mandel points to a potential learning curve for Scalley and his staff — as well as attrition on the roster — as to why he believes the Utes will go 7-5 overall and 4-5 in Big 12 play.
While Mandel predicts that one of the four new coaches in the Big 12 this season, Oklahoma State’s Eric Morris, will quickly turn things around for his program, he projects that the others, including Scalley, Kansas State’s Collin Klein and Iowa State’s Jimmy Rogers to struggle.
“Two former program legends became first-time head coaches at their alma maters,” Mandel wrote of Scalley and Klein. “Scalley retained star QB Devon Dampier but must deal with a lot of staff and player attrition. Meanwhile, Wildcats QB Avery Johnson has shown he has a low-ish ceiling.”
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