The 2026 NFL season is fast approaching and the Yahoo Fantasy Ultra Playbook has everything you need to know to before your draft, giving you the tools and analysis to crush the competition. Among that analysis is Joel Smyth's QB player profiles. Below is a sneak peek of some of the 25+ signal-caller profiles in the Ultra Playbook, including a ceiling and risk meter for each. If you subscribe to Ultra, there are nearly 150 player profiles to digest.
Ceiling: If things fall in their favor, how big can they hit in 2026?
Risk: A subjective ranking based on injuries, surrounding injuries, coaching changes, how proven a player is, age, and other factors that bring on uncertainty
Joe Burrow, Bengals (ADP 48.9)Over the last four seasons, when Burrow has been healthy, he's been a top-four fantasy QB. Being healthy has been more of a challenge for the Bengals QB, however. Last season showed both. He dealt with injury from Week 2 to 12 before ripping off five QB1 games in his last six weeks. Cincinnati is a pass-first team, and has shown to be no matter how good or bad its defense has been. Burrow still averaged 38 passing attempts with a top-10 defense in 2022 and since 2021, averages 0.1 fewer PPG when his team holds the opponent under 25 points, compared to when they allow over 25. Volume and skill shouldn't be a problem; it's more about health and how cautious he is on the ground coming off another lower-body injury.
Ceiling: 9/10
Risk: 7/10
Rushing QBs are king in fantasy. Eight-point-four rushing PPG led the position in Dart's 2025 rookie season, finishing the year third in fantasy points per snap played. The biggest question mark is the coaching changes. Dart's production and rushing dipped dramatically without Brian Daboll, and now Matt Nagy will enter in 2026 after the Chiefs allowed his contract to expire. Patrick Mahomes' fantasy production went from QB1 overall without Nagy to QB9 with him the last few seasons. The former Ole Miss QB will need to continue his red-zone rushing production in order to prevent a sophomore slump.
Ceiling: 9/10
Risk: 7/10
For the first time in years, Mahomes was a dominant force in the fantasy world in 2025. Was it his passing? No, actually his passing production was nearly identical to the other Matt Nagy seasons, but his scrambling made him dynamic with limited support in Kansas City. When Rashee Rice returned, that dipped significantly, and now the former MVP is coming off an ACL tear. It'll be difficult to keep his 5.2 rushing PPG, yet the hope is still there with Eric Bieniemy returning — the offensive coordinator who had Mahomes finish as a QB1 in his first five starting seasons. Andy Reid will still be calling plays, but with Nagy now in New York and Bieniemy back in the building, the explosive offense could return, giving the Chiefs a shot at another top-five season for Mahomes in fantasy.
Ceiling: 8/10
Risk: 7/10
From 2019 to 2024, Kyler Murray was a QB1 six straight seasons. One year later, he is the QB17 in ADP. In five games before injury last year, Murray failed to finish as a QB1 a single time. However, in four years with Kevin O'Connell at the helm, J.J. McCarthy's 2025 season was the only one without a top-12 QB. If Murray can return to his old self, the combination of O'Connell, the Minnesota pass-catchers and rushing ability will make Murray an easy hit at ADP.
Ceiling: 8/10
Risk: 8/10
Nix's near-perfect situation can be seen as both a positive and a negative. Even with a dominant defense, Nix led the NFL in passing volume, was protected by a great offensive line and had a relatively easy fantasy schedule. With Jaylen Waddle coming to town, he now has more weapons to choose from on a projected playoff team. It's only led to a couple of low-end QB1 seasons, but it puts him in rare company among young quarterbacks. His ADP has dropped off significantly compared to his QB8 draft position from last season, giving him an opportunity to smash if he continues to grow as a QB in Year 3. The minor concern comes with a potential for a decrease in rushing production. Repeating a third straight season with top-12 rushing production will be difficult after his devastating ankle fracture during the Divisional Round playoff game.
Ceiling: 8/10
Risk: 4/10
The NFL career leader in yards per attempt isn't Tom Brady or Joe Montana, it's Brock Purdy. The Kyle Shanahan system is here to stay and Purdy's efficiency will most likely stay along with it. His 21+ PPG didn't come from the greatest luck, as Purdy played zero games versus a bottom-five fantasy QB defense, and with limited WRs available, had the lowest percentage of QB yards coming after the catch. Despite three straight top-10 fantasy QB seasons, Purdy will once again be drafted outside the QB1 range. The former Mr. Irrelevant becomes a safer QB punt with some upside as seen in 2025.
Ceiling: 9/10
Risk: 3/10
The Playbook is powered by some of fantasy football's most-trusted analysts: Justin Boone (the top-ranked in-season ranker of 2025), Matt Harmon, Josh Norris, Joel Smyth, Scott Pianowski and Hayden Winks. This isn't one analyst's opinion. It's a consensus of the sharpest minds in fantasy football, featuring advice you can rely on.
The Ultra Fantasy Playbook is loaded with everything you need to dominate your draft.
What The Playbook includesPositional targets and fades: Each analyst reveals their favorite picks and players to avoid at QB, RB, WR and TE.
A sleeper and breakout candidate from all 32 teams: Every roster has one. We find them before your leaguemates do.
Deep sleepers: For the managers who want an edge late in drafts, where championships are quietly won.
Positional strategies: Deep dives on how to navigate builds for Late-Round QB, Zero RB and other popular strategies.
A detailed game plan for every draft pick range: Whether you're up first or at the turn, we tell you exactly how the board should shape your strategy in each round.
Nearly 150 player profiles: Scouting reports on the names who'll decide your season, including projections as well as ceiling and risk meters.
Half-PPR and full-PPR rankings: Consensus outlook built specifically for those scoring formats.
Half-PPR and full-PPR positional tiers from each analyst: See the value cliffs at a glance and know exactly when a position run is worth chasing.
Unique format advice: Playing in a Superflex or TE Premium league? We have top-50 lists to guide you through the key early rounds.
More analysis: Targets on each team, 2026's top-10 rookies, regression candidates, kicker and D/ST insights are all part of The Playbook.
Printable cheat sheets: Draft-day ready, so you're heads-down on the board and not toggling between 10 browser tabs.
The Yahoo Fantasy Ultra Playbook is built for fantasy managers who want to draft smarter, not just play the game.
An Ultra subscription also unlocks top-notch tools like Yahoo's Draft Strategy Lab, so you can take your mock draft game to the next level. Filter by each analyst's rankings or by a draft strategy style, like Robust RB.
How much does Fantasy Ultra cost? It's available for $79.99 per year, equal to $6.67 per month.
Where can I subscribe? Through eligible paywalls in the Yahoo Fantasy app or by visiting the Fantasy Plus landing page.
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