Aug. 20—I hadn't looked at any bracketology efforts since the NCAA announced its tournament would expand to 76 teams for the 2026-27 season. Then released an updated projection this week. Here's what stood out:
— Illinois is a No. 1 seed playing in the Midwest Regional. A Louisville to Kansas City to Detroit path isn't bad. Not quite the St. Louis to Chicago to Indianapolis ideal path that could have been last year, but still all drivable for a fan base that showed up in droves for the Final Four at Lucas Oil Stadium.
From a basketball standpoint, Illinois as a No. 1 seed matches my preseason view of Brad Underwood's latest team. I've got the Illini at No. 2 on my yet-to-be-finalized preseason top 25 ballot, so securing the second No. 1 seed in Underwood's tenure as coach is reasonable.
— Illinois is also one of a dozen Big Ten teams projected to earn a spot in the tournament field. That ties the Big Ten with the SEC for the most potential tourney teams, with the Big 12 next with 10 and the ACC and Big East boasting seven apiece.
I'll do the math for you. That's 48 of the 76 available spots going to power conference programs — a notable 63 percent of the field. Those same five conferences accounted for 38 of 68 tournament teams a year ago (or 56 percent).
Anyone that thought an expanded field would open the door for more mid-major teams was simply kidding themselves. Lunardi's last four byes and last four in are all power conference teams, while seven of the next eight out are also from the Big Ten, Big 12, ACC and SEC.
— The only other projected multi-bid league is the Atlantic-10 with Saint Louis and VCU making the cut. Last year, the WCC, A-10 and MAC all got at least two bids. That leaves, of course, 26 single-bid conferences, including the newly-reformed Pac-12, which, of course, is represented by Gonzaga.
— An overload of power conference programs plus the nature of how those leagues have expanded means rules about regular season rematches in the tournament have to be less restrictive. That's how Illinois, in Lunardi's estimation, could wind up with a second-round game against the winner of Ohio State/Missouri and it be necessary. (Of course, that is based off the assumption the Illini would handle Merrimack in the 1-versus-16 game).
In case you were curious, Merrimack is entering its sixth season at the Division I level and has yet to make an NCAA tournament but only because of NCAA rules about reclassifying programs. An NEC regular season title in 2019-20 would have had the Warriors in the bubble tourney in Indiana.
This year's team, fresh off a MAAC regular season title, returns junior guard Tye Dorset after losing leading scorer and MAAC Player of the Year Kevair Kennedy (Wake Forest) and second-leading scorer Ernest Shelton (Boston College) to the transfer portal.
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