The Green Bay Packers are gearing up for the 2026 NFL season, and expectations are mixed following a disappointing 2025 campaign. The team finished with a record of 9-7-1, narrowly securing the 7th seed in the playoffs, only to be eliminated in the first round. Their divisional performance was slightly better, as they managed a 4-2 record, sweeping the Detroit Lions and splitting games with the Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. However, a loss to the Vikings in the final week, where backups played, raised questions about their depth and overall performance.
The Packers entered the 2025 season with high hopes after a bold move to acquire star linebacker Micah Parsons from the Dallas Cowboys, trading two first-round picks and defensive tackle Kenny Clark. Parsons, who signed a lucrative four-year extension worth $186 million, was expected to be a game-changer. Unfortunately, his season was cut short due to a torn ACL suffered in Week 15, and the Packers struggled without him, losing every game in which he did not play. As he continues to recover, Parsons is expected to miss at least the first four games of the upcoming season, further complicating the Packers' defensive plans.
Offensively, the Packers ranked 16th in points scored last season but were more efficient in terms of DVOA, finishing 6th. Their ability to limit turnovers was commendable, as they ranked 3rd in that category. However, the defense struggled to create turnovers, finishing 26th. Overall, the Packers' Total DVOA placed them at 11th, indicating they were just above average but lacked the firepower to make a deep playoff run.
This offseason has seen significant changes, particularly on the coaching staff. Defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley departed to become the head coach of the Miami Dolphins, and Jonathan Gannon, previously head coach of the Arizona Cardinals, has taken over. Gannon's past performance has raised concerns, as his defenses have often been inconsistent. The Packers will transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defensive scheme, which may take time for the players to adapt to, especially without Parsons in the lineup.
On the roster front, the Packers added veteran defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, previously of the Minnesota Vikings, to strengthen their interior pass rush. However, they parted ways with edge rusher Rashan Gary, placing hopes on Lukas Van Ness to fill the void. The secondary will see rookie Brandon Cisse stepping in as a starting cornerback alongside Keisan Nixon, while Javon Bullard is expected to take on slot duties. These changes may not significantly improve the team's defensive capabilities, and there are concerns about potential regression.
Offensively, the Packers have made some adjustments to their receiving corps, moving on from players like Romeo Doubs. They are banking on Christian Watson and Matthew Golden to emerge as reliable outside receivers, alongside slot receiver Jayden Reed. However, the health of these players remains a concern, particularly for Watson, who has a history of injuries. The offensive line, a critical area for success, appears to be a weak link, with uncertainty surrounding the starting positions and overall effectiveness.
Compounding these challenges, starting running back Josh Jacobs is currently on the commissioner’s exempt list due to a domestic incident, leaving the Packers with a lackluster group of running backs led by Marshawn Lloyd, who has seen limited action since being drafted. The uncertainty surrounding Jacobs’ return adds another layer of difficulty for the Packers as they prepare for the season.
In terms of injury luck, the Packers were relatively average last season, finishing 15th in adjusted games lost. With key players like Parsons and tight end Tucker Kraft missing significant time due to injuries, the team will need to navigate these challenges carefully to avoid a repeat of last year's struggles.
Looking ahead, the Packers' strength of schedule for the upcoming season is projected to be the 17th easiest, which may provide some relief. However, they will face tough matchups, including games against the Rams, Texans, and Cowboys. Based on the analysis of coaching changes, roster adjustments, and overall luck factors, the Packers are predicted to finish the season with a record of 9-8. This may not be sufficient to secure the NFC North title, but it could potentially earn them a playoff spot for the fourth consecutive year.
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