How concerned should Texas fans be about Arch Manning's struggles?

As the Texas scrimmage finished yesterday and information began coming out, the Arch Manning hysteria began. Steve Sarkisian, during his post-scrimmage media availability, remarked Manning was “inefficient” to start the scrimmage, but finished strong. That’s a sentiment that has seemingly been presented for much of fall camp.

After missing spring camp, Manning’s accuracy still seems to be an area for improvement as the season approaches. That leads us to the question: How concerned should Longhorn Nation be about Manning’s struggles? 

One of the frustrating parts of fall camp, and the offseason at large, is it’s truly a “zero-sum game”. If the offense struggles, it could just as easily be a sign of elite defense as it could be bad offense. It’s nearly impossible to know exactly where a player, a unit or a team is before the ball is kicked off. Considering that, being overly concerned or overly confident(as Texas learned last season) doesn’t make sense. 

Sarkisian on Arch Manning: He had a really good week of practice, especially Friday when Texas got really situational.

Today: "I felt like today, similar to last week at the start, a little bit inefficient. I feel like he could be better."

Says Manning had a touchdown to Wingo…

That being said, the word “inefficient” points toward inaccuracy, particularly on throws Manning should complete. That’s something he struggled with last season and can’t linger throughout this season. It seems Manning had a strong week leading up to the scrimmage but struggled again Saturday. The next two weeks are important to get Manning confidence and efficiency up before Texas State comes to town. 

Steve Sarkisian says if Arch Manning is "a little more energized and a little more sharp," he feels like that will trickle down to the rest of the team and yield a better overall Texas football product in the two weeks leading up to the season.

Now, the question that should be answered is: Did Manning regress this offseason? I don’t believe that to be the case, and according to Inside Texas’ sources, they don’t either. That’s important to set a baseline for the season. If Manning starts the season the way he finished 2025, the Texas offense will be effective enough to win games. 

Now, I’m a believer Manning will need to play better than late last season to win a championship, so that’s only part of the equation. He’ll need to improve throughout the season but if September 2026 Arch resembles November/December 2025 Arch, Texas will have a chance to win every game they play. The progression has to happen quickly but it doesn’t have to be perfect in Week One. 

I’d bet Arch Manning is drafted #1 overall in 2027 pic.twitter.com/UCIs0MybxP

Last season, Arch Manning dealt with unrealistic expectations. This season, I don’t believe it’s unrealistic to say he can win the Heisman and be the top pick in the NFL Draft. He will be, and should be, held to a high standard this season. That being said, that high standard is not set until the Texas State game. No amount of good(or bad) play during fall camp was going to paint Arch Manning’s image this season. The play during the season is all that matters for No. 16. 

So, how concerned should Texas fans be? I’d argue there’s little reason for genuine concern but good reason for more attention on Manning over the next two weeks. The Texas offense, as they did in the scrimmage, will always create explosives. Manning’s accuracy and efficiency could deliver Texas a National Championship. The next two weeks need to be more efficient for Manning but until it’s inefficient against Texas State or Ohio State, I’d save your panic.

This article originally appeared on Longhorns Wire: How concerned should Texas fans be about Arch Manning's struggles?