NFL team totals: 8 over/under bets entering 2026 season

The 2026 NFL season is almost here, which means it’s time to start looking at team win totals. We’ve identified eight numbers that can offer value, with six overs and two unders. These aren’t predictions for the exact number of wins — they’re bets on whether each team will beat or fall short of the number posted by sportsbooks.

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2026 NFL team total picksBuffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) smiles while warming up before the Buffalo Bills wild card game against the Denver Broncos at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park on Jan. 12, 2025.Buffalo Bills — Over 10.5 wins

The Bills remain one of the AFC’s elite teams, and Josh Allen gives them one of the biggest advantages in football. Buffalo won 12 games last season and should remain firmly in the AFC playoff picture despite Sean McDermott’s departure.

Los Angeles Rams — Over 11.5 wins

This is a high number, but the Rams are built to contend for the NFC’s top seed. Adding Myles Garrett to an already-loaded roster makes this team even more dangerous, and the Rams currently have one of the highest win totals on the board at 11.5.

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New Orleans Saints — Over 7.5 winsJan 4, 2026; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough (6) runs for a touchdown against the Atlanta Falcons in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

This is one of my more aggressive Overs. New Orleans doesn’t need to be a playoff team to cash this ticket; it simply needs eight wins. That’s a manageable target for a team that could surprise people if its young players develop.

New England Patriots — Over 9.5 wins

The defending AFC champions have earned the benefit of the doubt. Drake Maye is entering his third NFL season, and the Patriots added A.J. Brown to an offense that already averaged 28.8 points per game last season. Getting to 10 wins feels very attainable.

Arizona Cardinals — Under 4.5 wins

Arizona has one of the lowest win totals in the league, and I don’t see enough on this roster to expect a major turnaround. The Cardinals are already massive underdogs in Week 1 and face a difficult schedule.

Philadelphia Eagles — Over 9.5 winsDec 14, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) reacts during the third quarter against the Las Vegas Raiders at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-Imagn Images Credit: IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect (Reuters)

Philadelphia remains one of the NFC’s most talented rosters. The Eagles have a high-end quarterback, an elite defense and enough offensive talent to make another playoff run. Their current market win total is actually listed at 10.5 or higher at some books, which makes 9.5 particularly appealing if that’s the number available.

Denver Broncos — Over 9.5 wins

Denver went 14-3 last season and returns a roster capable of competing for the AFC West. Bo Nix’s development is the biggest variable, but I expect the Broncos to remain one of the conference’s better teams.

New York Jets — Under 5.5 wins

The Jets are my favorite Under on this list. Their win total has already fallen significantly from earlier projections, and even the early market analysis identified New York as a strong Under candidate.

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2026 NFL cardAug 13, 2026; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) warms up before a preseason game against the Indianapolis Colts at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Natalie Reid-Imagn Images

• Patriots Over 9.5
• Rams Over 11.5
• Bills Over 10.5
• Saints Over 7.5
• Cardinals Under 4.5
• Eagles Over 9.5
• Broncos Over 9.5
• Jets Under 5.5

The key with team totals is finding the number rather than simply picking the teams you believe will be good. Several of these teams may win fewer or more games than my projection, but at the numbers listed above, these are the eight 2026 NFL team totals I’m willing to bet.

****Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.****

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