Orioles vs. Rays discussion

MINNEAPOLIS, MINNESOTA - AUGUST 10: Trevor Rogers #28 of the Baltimore Orioles pitches against the Minnesota Twins during the third inning of the game at Target Field on August 10, 2026 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. (Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Last weekend, the Orioles got everybody’s hopes up by winning the first three games against the Rays. They’ve spent the days since stumbling around and not doing a whole lot and so they’ve squandered the opportunity they created for themselves to stay ahead of the wild card competition.

Can they get back up again after losing four straight, including being swept by the Yankees? We’re going to find out tonight! It could go well. This season so far, the Orioles win 47.7% of the time. They’re just shy of the wrong end of a coin flip in the aggregate. Maybe getting to .500 is all they will need, if FanGraphs recent analysis about the possibility of a sub-.500 playoff team holds.

The O’s have 34 games to play. They’d need to be 20-14 over those 34 to finish at least .500. You can talk yourself into thinking they might be able to do it if you are doing this right after watching them win a couple of games in a row. It’s a tougher sell after having watched the last few games, where the problems in the offense and defense and bullpen have bitten the team a lot.

It is still hard to know just what to make of these guys. Why can’t they be consistently better? They should be better! Many things are frustrating. They haven’t been able to overcome their challenges often enough, even in this weak year for the middle of the American League.

Reminder: This game’s only video broadcast will be on Apple TV. If you do not subscribe to that, you cannot watch. It will still be on the radio as normal.

Orioles lineup

1. Jackson Holliday – 2B
2. Pete Alonso – 1B
3. Gunnar Henderson – SS
4. Tyler O’Neill – DH
5. Samuel Basallo – C
6. Dylan Beavers – LF
7. Coby Mayo – 3B
8. Colton Cowser – CF
9. Leody Taveras – RF

This is the lineup supporting Trevor Rogers, who, as you’ve probably heard by now, has been pretty darn good since June 1. Whether he continues this through the end of the season will probably have a lot to do with how much money he makes as a free agent.

Rays lineup

1. Yandy Díaz – DH
2. Jonny DeLuca – CF
3. Junior Caminero – 3B
4. Ryan Vilade – RF
5. Chandler Simpson – LF
6. Jorge Mateo – 2B
7. Kenny Piper – C
8. Liam Hicks – 1B
9. Taylor Walls – SS

The Rays starting pitcher, Freddy Peralta, wasn’t bad in his last game against the Orioles, giving up two runs over 4.2 innings, though the Rays got blown out in that game anyway.