The Premier League predictions continue, and in Part Two I’m looking at another group of clubs with very different ambitions.
For some, survival will be the only thing that matters. Others will be targeting Europe, while those at the very top know anything short of a title challenge will be viewed as a disappointment.
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Here is where I think they will finish…
Hull – 20thI know it’s a bit boring to predict that the playoff winners will finish bottom of the table, but I have heard Hull’s own fans describe them as one of the most ill-prepared teams to get promoted to the Premiership.
Not many teams get out of the Championship while conceding the joint-fourth most goals.
To clarify, it wasn’t a case of the Tigers playing an attacking brand of football and that’s why they left gaps at the back.
In fact, they were 21st in the second tier for possession and 19th for accurate passes in a game. Considering this time last year they had a transfer embargo, Sergej Jakiovic has overachieved and, strangely, might now become a victim of his own success.
So many of the stats show they really had no business being near the top of the English second tier, yet they somehow got promoted.
I just can’t see them surviving in the top flight.
Ipswich – 16thIt’s always interesting to compare how promoted sides have a different approach to the Premiership.
The idea was that the Tractor Boys would be better off for the experience of relegation from the top flight and then returning at the first time of trying.
That was with the understanding that Kieran McKenna would be in charge. The manager strangely turned down jobs when relegated but then quit after promotion. Maybe the 40-year-old feels he took the club as far as he could?
If he were still around, I’m not sure the recruitment team would have taken their current transfer strategy.
It seems like the Leeds United model is being copied, with players brought in who might not have played in England before but who are all a certain size and therefore can hold their own physically.
At least it’s a plan that I sense didn’t exist two years ago.
Strangely, I think the football under Gary O’Neil will be less pleasing on the eye compared to the last time Portman Road hosted top-flight action, but more likely to survive.
Leeds – 11thThe club know all about second-season syndrome.
In 2021, a newly promoted Leeds finished ninth; 12 months later they had to wait until the final day to avoid relegation.
Little things that took opponents by surprise, such as Calvert-Lewin being an incredible free transfer and Daniel Farke switching to a back three halfway through the campaign, are now things the opposition is aware of.
You do sense, though, there are enough leaders in that squad and an atmosphere at home games to not let a flirt with relegation get out of hand.
James Trafford might fix a problem position at Elland Road, while Harry Wilson on a free could be the bargain of the summer.
Yet you still sense that while they respect the job he’s done, it wouldn’t take a lot for supporters to turn on Daniel Farke again?
Liverpool – 4thFew clubs have as many what-ifs as Liverpool, and depending on which way they go, it could be the difference between a title challenge or competing for fifth!
Isak, Wirtz, Frimpong and Kirkez all had disappointing first seasons on Merseyside, so they could feel like new signings if they find their mojo. Barcola could join by September.
Even if that happens, though, they might be undermined by their defence, with VVD no longer able to bail his peers out of trouble.
Whatever happens, fans will be more entertained with Iraola in charge, with some saying they were bored at Anfield watching Slot’s tactics.
Their new manager has already hinted that it will take time for his new squad to find the fitness level his ethos demands.
Bournemouth often looked tired in the second half, and the last thing the Spaniard needs is to prove that his style of play is sustainable every few days.
You don’t hire the 44-year-old unless you’re willing to be patient.
Man United – 5thI know some United fans who have not been excited by the recruitment this summer, but it’s another example of Sir Jim Ratcliffe self-reflecting on previous mistakes.
Once upon a time, the Red Devils would have been one of the first to pay an inflated fee in the hope one superstar name could be the quick fix.
Now there seems to be an acceptance that little steps might be required and occasionally you might have to take a step back to go two forward.
That includes understanding that Michael Carrick no longer has one game a week to focus on.
I said on the day he was hired as interim manager that there is a massive difference between being the caretaker boss until the end of the season and now being the man in charge full-time. The two job criteria are different.
So Carrick needs his employers to be patient.
(Photo by Carl Recine/Getty Images)
Man City – 2ndArsenal and Man City could still do something special in the market before September, but as I write this, there appear to be the same differences between the top two that there were a year ago.
The champions have the best defence in the country but lack something in the final third. While at the Etihad, you can’t see our rivals attacking and not scoring, but defensively they can’t do what the Gunners do off the ball.
Pep Guardiola is the greatest to ever live, so it would be foolish if anyone on the blue half of Manchester didn’t give Maresca time.
What City will miss are the little nuances. Pep had to get the best out of people daily in training that the cameras don’t see.
The Spaniard’s attention to detail could be obsessive, which is why he had to walk away from England. Like in Spain, he knew the emotion and work rate it took to build a successful team and didn’t have the energy to go again.
That can’t be replaced. Success can be decided by the smallest detail, and City had a manager who created an environment of not just handling must-win conditions every few days, but players doing so with smiles on their faces.
I just can’t see Maresca handling the pressure of a title race in April and May like Pep often did. At least not in his first season.
Newcastle – 13thOutside of Leeds and Portsmouth, has one Premiership club ever been torn apart in one window?
The Magpies lost their manager, captain and essentially the whole midfield in one fell swoop.
Now, we shouldn’t assume just because the recruitment team have brought in youngsters from outside England that one of them can’t be their next Tonali or Bruno Guimaraes.
The worry would be when something goes wrong. Who now is that leader in the dressing room?
A Dan Burn will be vocal, but who will demand that ball and be brave enough to make something happen?
When Geordies have something to believe in, they can make St James’ Park a hostile place for any visiting team. Alternatively, once nerves creep in on Tyneside, it becomes hard for their own players to play at their own stadium.
The whole city needs a good start to the season.
A relegation scrap is more likely than a European push?
Nottingham Forest – 15thIf I were a Palace fan, I would be really disappointed that after knowing for months Glasner would be leaving, he chose the City Ground as his next workplace.
The assumption was he would use the FA Cup and UEFA Conference on his CV to try and get a bigger job, but instead he takes a sideways move.
He won’t be the first manager to be motivated by money, but it’s disappointing that he’s sacrificed a Europa League campaign for financial gain. The 51-year-old is smart enough to know what he’s agreed to.
It’s reported that Marinakis has made the Austrian the second-highest-paid coach in the Premier League, but the owner will want something to show for that, and it’s probably not realistic.
So in the short term, Forest’s players will be taught another new way of playing, but the moment things go wrong, Glasner’s employer will want to interfere, and Glasner’s personality will be to shout back.
At which point he gets a lucrative payoff.
We’ve seen this movie before in Nottingham and know how it ends.
Spurs – 7thBanter aside, Spurs’ owners are finally showing some ambition.
It reminds me of when Arsenal finished eighth and the Kroenke family realised, from a PR point of view, they could not let the club ever fall that low again.
Typical of their fanbase, though, they have gotten carried away before a ball has even been kicked.
The only way they would get a Tonali and Fernandes is by paying a figure they knew others wouldn’t.
They won’t be in a relegation fight this season, but won’t be qualifying for the Champions League either. Both can be true.
Although their manager has hinted the club might have another big signing up their sleeve.
Sunderland – 17thThe Black Cats are another team that could be impacted by juggling Europe with their domestic calendar.
Yet if it means an adventure in the Europa League, then it will be worth it.
The worry from their fanbase is that not enough has been done in the window to help a small squad with the Thursday-Sunday schedule, although that could change by the end of the month.
The moment they are safe, they should prioritise their European dream.
What do you think of these predictions? Which club have I got completely wrong, and who do you expect to overachieve or struggle this season? Let us know in the comments.
Dan Smith
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