Tarik Skubal contract projection: Will Dodgers price out a Tigers return in 2027?

Tarik Skubal contract projection: Will Dodgers price out a Tigers return in 2027? originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

On two instances over the past year, the Detroit Tigers have made it clear that they did not intend to pay Tarik Skubal when he hits free agency.

Last offseason, Skubal was in a historic arbitration case with his longtime team. While the Tigers wanted to pay him $19 million in 2026, Skubal won the case, making a record-setting $32 million as the two-time reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. Then, with the Tigers struggling, they said goodbye to their star pitcher at the deadline, sending him to the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now on a quest to bring the Dodgers a third-straight title, Skubal will still hit free agency this winter, able to join any team of his choosing. But things can change — and according to Skubal, he's open to a Detroit reunion, assuming the financial details work out.

With Skubal making a return to Detroit on Friday, here's the latest look at a potential extension figure and why the Tigers can't yet be ruled out as players.

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• 9 years, $360 million

As he's ascended to becoming a two-time Cy Young Award winner, Skubal's 2026 free agency has often been pinned as a potential record-setting mark for a pitcher. At 29 years old, he has plenty of prime years left, leaving most analysts to project him for a floor of $300 million in total.

Skubal certainly has an argument to be the best pitcher in baseball over the last two years — and to be paid as such, he would have to eclipse Zack Wheeler's current AAV of $42 million. Meanwhile, the largest total figure for a pitcher contract is Yoshinobu Yamamoto's $325 million deal signed with the Dodgers in 2024.

Skubal could easily set new records for a pitcher on both fronts, AAV and total money. Recent injury concerns in 2026 could mean he doesn't quite reach $400 million as once anticipated, but eight years at $43 million per year would net Skubal $344 million, still a record-setting amount.

A nine-year deal worth $360 million would keep Skubal with his new squad through age 38, while also setting non-Shohei Ohtani pitching records for AAV ($45 million, surpassing Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander's $43.33 million) and total cash. 

The value of a pitcher like Skubal, who can go deep into games with elite stuff, is immense in the modern game — a $380 million-plus deal wouldn't be surprising, even with his trade to the Dodgers and injury issues earlier this season.

Because of the money he'll be commanding, teams like the Dodgers and Mets are expected to be the main players for Skubal this winter, likely competing in a historic bidding war for a starter. But while the Tigers haven't yet proven their financially committed to paying Skubal, things can certainly change.

When he was traded to Los Angeles, Skubal left the door open to a return to Detroit.

“I would love to play my whole career in Detroit. I would love to,” Skubal said, per MLB.com. “And hopefully those negotiations can pick back up in November once the playoffs are done. We’ll see where that goes. Hopefully they’re involved with everything. I would love to return."

The sentimental aspect of Skubal with the Tigers could mean he's willing to take slightly less money to return — but considering Detroit traded him in the summer, anticipating they'd lose him in free agency, it's highly unlikely they change course.

“This wasn’t the way the season was supposed to go. Going into the offseason, [with] the people that we acquired through free agency and who we signed, I’m like, ‘This is the World Series team,’” Skubal said of the Tigers after being traded. “This is the team that I’m gonna go and win a World Series and beat anybody. It doesn’t matter what’s going on.”

CAREER-HIGH 14 STRIKEOUTS FOR TARIK SKUBAL. pic.twitter.com/oxbkVyOrOd

In all likelihood, the Tigers will move forward without Skubal, as Framber Valdez ($38.3 million AAV) already commands a significant contract in their rotation. But perhaps the Skubal market takes an unexpected turn — at the very least, a return to Detroit is something he appears open to.