The Prince Who Was Promised. It’s been five long years. Lesser-touted prospects likely would not have gotten as many chances. But last season, it finally happened for Trevor Lawrence. In the first season under Liam Coen, things finally came together for the former No. 1 overall pick. The question fantasy managers must answer is whether this was a fluke or if the Jacksonville Jaguars QB1 is here to stay.
Should You Draft Trevor Lawrence in Fantasy Football?Lawrence was very much overrated as a prospect. Pegged as the best QB prospect since Andrew Luck, expectations were sky-high after he went No. 1 overall in the 2021 draft. Saddled with the worst coach in NFL history as a rookie (Urban Meyer), Lawrence never really had a chance. Thus, he was given a mulligan for what was otherwise a pretty disastrous rookie season for a top pick.
In his sophomore season, Lawrence was better, but still fell well short of proving worthy of all the praise heaped upon him. He averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game, but did have a truly elite stretch from Weeks 10-15 that inspired optimism.
Unfortunately, Lawrence was unable to build upon his high-level play and largely stagnated. He posted 17.3 PPG in 2023 before regressing further to 15.2 PPG in 2024. Heading into the 2025 season, the arrival of Coen as head coach gave Lawrence one last out, but patience had worn thin in the fantasy community. He looked like a mediocre starting quarterback.
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Credit to both Lawrence and Coen for figuring things out. There are definitely still some concerns. Lawrence is not yet knocking on the door of being a top-five NFL QB. But he showed flashes, posting the best season of his career.
Lawrence averaged 19.9 PPG, finishing as the overall QB5. He only completed 60.9% of his passes, which is not ideal, but there’s no denying he played the best football of his young career.
Where Lawrence really took a step forward was in his rushing. We know rushing production is massively important in a quarterback’s reliability year over year. It’s great to see Lawrence contribute 24.8% of his fantasy points via the ground. As great as that was for fantasy managers, it’s a bit of a yellow flag going forward.
That may seem counterintuitive. Why is Lawrence producing fantasy points on the ground a bad thing? It’s not. Rather, the way he got there is.
Lawrence really didn’t increase his rushing attempts significantly. Prior to last season, he averaged 3.85 carries per game. Last season, that ticked up to 4.82. His 21.1 rushing yards per game was only 2.4 more than his career average. It certainly helps, but we’re talking a very insignificant increase in fantasy production.
The difference was in touchdowns. Lawrence rushed for nine scores. He had 14 rushing touchdowns over his first four seasons combined. The only meaningful difference in Lawrence’s rushing from the first four years of his career to 2025 was how often he found the end zone. That is not something we necessarily want to bank on.
Lawrence’s Redraft Fantasy Football ValueIn recent seasons, it’s been more viable to spend premium draft capital on a quarterback than during the 2010s. The rise of the mobile QB has resulted in the elite fantasy quarterbacks not only having higher ceilings, but being more predictable year over year.
Given how flat the wide receivers get once you get into the WR2 range, combined with running backs falling off a cliff around the fifth round, it’s more viable than usual to spend up for an elite QB. But the arguments in favor of late-round QB remain strong. Does Lawrence quality? He’s close.
There are a number of quarterbacks relatively close in ADP with Lawrence right in the middle of them. How many of them have top-five upside? Truthfully, most of them. But does Lawrence? He really might not.
Make no mistake about it. Lawrence is a QB1. We have him ranked at QB10, firmly inside the top 12. It’s unlikely anything happens that pushes him out of it. But where is the upside coming from?
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Does Lawrence have the potential for a Matthew Stafford-esque 40-TD season? Maybe. He threw for 29 passing touchdowns last year, while adding the aforementioned nine on the ground. A 38-TD season feels about as good as it will get from Lawrence, and it wasn’t enough to crack the top five.
In all likelihood, we see Lawrence regress to the mean this season and rush for 4-5 touchdowns, more in line with his career average. Even if he doesn’t lose those other 4-5 touchdowns, if they transfer over to the aerial side of things, that’s about a half PPG being subtracted from his average.
The good news is Lawrence has a great supporting cast. Having Brian Thomas Jr. as your WR3 is pretty damn good. Jakobi Meyers and Parker Washington should serve as his top two options, with Brenton Strange providing quality tight end play. This is a very good offense.
With that said, Lawrence remains one of several options for fantasy managers who pass on the elites like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye. While he’s not the cheapest of the medley of low QB1/high QB2 options that all have vertical upside, he’s a fine selection at cost.
Lawrence’s Dynasty Fantasy Football ValueLawrence checks in at QB11 in our dynasty rankings. At 26 years old, he’s firmly in his prime. Lawrence has enough mobility to hang with the modern crop of quarterbacks. He’s tethered to an innovative, forward-thinking head coach who has already proven to be one of the best offensive minds in the NFL. If you have Lawrence on your dynasty roster, you know he’s going to be a starting QB for at least another decade.
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Right now, it’s hard to see top-five upside with Lawrence, but that doesn’t preclude from developing it in the future. Plus, not every quarterback has to be Allen or Jackson. There is nothing to complain about if you get mid-to-low QB1 production from Lawrence for the better part of the next decade.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.
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