UFC Sacramento focuses on the middleweight division this Saturday in California after a notable numbered event last weekend in Philadelphia.
In the headliner, Anthony "Fluffy" Hernandez returns to take on the always entertaining "Robocop" Gregory Rodrigues. For Hernandez, the fight serves as a rebound after his tough setback against the now-champion Sean Strickland earlier this year. Rodrigues, meanwhile, hopes to make good on another main-event opportunity after falling short last year in his first headlining appearance against Jared Cannonier.
This card offers the latest example of a more common these days, with the tier ranking between UFC Fight Nights on the road and the Meta Apex variants blending into a blur in terms of quality. Order-wise, the UFC made the odd choice to put heavyweights Serghei Spivac and Vitor Petrino in the co-main event over Reinier de Ridder vs. Roman Dolidze — two multi-time headliners.
In other words, UFC Sacramento is a card. Some fun results are surely in store, but they'll be hardly consequential in any division.
👑 UFC Sacramento's lineup Crown grade: D. 👑
Gregory Rodrigues has a big shot at launching up the middleweight ranks.Jeff Bottari via Getty Images185 pounds: Anthony Hernandez (-200) vs. Gregory Rodrigues (+165)There are really only two likely outcomes to this main event. Either Hernandez gets the action to the mat and finds a finish, or Rodrigues sleeps him before the final bell.
It's never a secret what Hernandez wants to do in the Octagon — unless you're Strickland, who elicited a wildly bizarre performance from "Fluffy." The typically tenacious grappler attempted only a single takedown in three rounds against the now-champ. Normally Hernandez is all over his opponents, leading to a good old-fashioned bully beatdown.
Of course, Strickland deserves some credit for nullifying Hernandez's game. But it was more about what Hernandez didn't do than what Strickland did do. That being said, Hernandez has been virtually unmatched with his smothering ground game, and Rodrigues has shown weaknesses in that department.
The Brazilian is a massive body in the 185-pound division, so he'll be fine in the strength department against Hernandez’s grappling. He'll simply need to rely more on technique and timing when seeking his patented knockout blow. The man carries absolute nukes for fists, and even a slight graze can stun anyone across from him.
So it's simple here. Either Rodrigues has his way on the feet en route to another knockout, or else Hernandez grounds "Robocop." I have to lean toward the latter, thanks to Hernandez coming through in all but one of his past nine appearances.
Pick: Hernandez
265 pounds: Serghei Spivac (+115) vs. Vitor Petrino (-140)As mentioned off the top, UFC is forcing heavyweights in our face with this one.
Realistically, this matchup is designed to see whether Petrino can climb up the ranks. Not that the justification should matter much in the land of big men — throw any two heavyweights together at random right now, and you're bound to get the same type of fight with 85% of the division.
Petrino is a classic case of a failed light heavyweight finding new life at heavyweight. He was finished by Anthony Smith and Dustin Jacoby at 205 pounds before he made his debut in the heavyweight division three fights ago. Undefeated since, Petrino began the run with the layup of all layups in Austen Lane, before finishing Thomas Petersen and battling to a decision with Steven Asplund. A real heavyweight row in 2026. (Yes, the "murderer's" exclusion was intentional there.)
In regards to strength of schedule, Spivac has Petrino handily beaten. He's only lost to notable names throughout his career, beating the usual suspects that he probably always should have. For a big, rangy dude, Spivac carries sneaky grappling chops, which should lead him to victory against Petrino, via a late submission or decision.
Pick: Spivac
205 pounds: Reinier de Ridder (-450) vs. Roman Dolidze (+340)Going down UFC Sacramento from the top, it's kind of funny to see the amount of grappling potential there could be.
Both "RDR" and Dolidze have pulled off some epic submissions throughout their careers, so any ground entanglement could make for a fun time. But I still lean toward the ever-lethal de Ridder.
Dolidze has slowed down significantly in recent fights, and in the areas he's excelled, such as punching his way into clinches, he'll be most vulnerable against de Ridder. The former ONE double champ threatens perennially with vicious knees, and he'll be able to impose his game to beat up Dolidze similarly to how he upset Bo Nickal.
At this stage, Dolidze just doesn't appear to have much left for someone like "RDR."
Pick: de Ridder
Mason Jones fights like a house on fire. (Photo by Bradley Collyer/PA Images via Getty Images)Bradley Collyer - PA Images via Getty Images155 pounds: MarQuel Mederos (+260) vs. Mason Jones (-325)Mason Jones absolutely rules, and I'm stunned to see him on this slow roll through UFC stint No. 2.
It's been banger after banger for Jones, who’s gotten his raised every time out since he first left the UFC in 2022. It’s seven straight wins for the Welshman, and after his latest triumph against Axel Sola, he gets MarQuel Mederos.
Don't get me wrong, Mederos is a solid prospect in his own right. Prior to his draw against Chris Padilla, he was on a great run of wins, dating back to his lone career defeat, which occurred the same year Jones left the promotion.
Mederos enjoys a good striking exchange or two and generally follows a fight flow from start to finish. With Jones, there isn't much flow, though. It's all chaos. He brawls it out until he can’t, then leans on a solid wrestling game.
Jones knows his strengths and plays to all of them well. He's become a very solid overall fighter, but his fight IQ may be his best weapon. This is his fight to lose.
Pick: Jones
125 pounds: Carli Judice (-600) vs. Jeisla Chaves (+425)After a tough start to her UFC career, Carli Judice has gotten on track and now finds herself viewed by many as a legit future flyweight contender. The 27-year-old has been "Crispy," as her nickname suggests, head-kicking Yuneisy Duben and kneeing Nicole Caliari into oblivion, followed by a great effort over Julianna Miller. Similar to a Jones or Petrino, Judice certainly isn't being rushed by the UFC, but that's probably in her best interests while she’s still developing.
If MMA math is to be believed, Jeisla Chaves is in trouble, having fought to a split-decision with Duben her last time out. Even a prior split win over Sofia Montenegro on Contender Series suggests that Chaves has more growing to do than Judice.
With all that said, Chaves has shown some strong ground-and-pound work in her career. It just wasn't against anyone with a win. Like, literally. Chaves hadn't fought an opponent with a professional win until Montenegro. Judice is a step above that.
Pick: Judice
265 pounds: Anthony Wint (-1200) vs. Terrance Chatman (+750)How insane is it that we see odds like this weekly on UFC cards? This is supposed to be the premier MMA organization on the planet. These disparities should not exist.
Anyway, Anthony Wint is a beast of a man. The former New York Jet is, unsurprisingly, a bona fide brick [expletive]house, if you will. Being an NFL player doesn't always translate to MMA, as we know, but the athleticism of this guy has been on display in all seven of his fights thus far.
Sure, anything is possible in this absurd heavyweight division. But Terrance Chatman is being brought in to join Wint's highlight reel. Plain and simple.
Pick: Wint
Shanelle Dyer is on the rise at strawweight.Jasper Wax via Getty ImagesPreliminary NotesIf Judice is a bright spot for the flyweight division, Shanelle Dyer is one for strawweight. The Brit put on a sensational effort in her win against Ravena Oliveira, making her curtain-jerker status here against Elise Reed somewhat of a head-scratcher. Nonetheless, she's a talented striker who's worth your time.
Lerryan Douglas is back in action after a great finish of Julian Erosa. A win over Jamall Emmers could put the surging Brazilian in position for a notable name fight, as he continues to prove his legitimacy after holding LFA gold.
Quick picks:
Lerryan Douglas (-400) def. Jamall Emmers (+310)
Shamil Gaziev (-135) def. Kennedy Nzechukwu (+110)
Nasrat Haqparast (-125) def. Chris Padilla (+105)
Márcio Barbosa (-900) def. Ryan Kuse (+600)
Gauge Young (-165) def. Stanley Dorsainvil (+135)
Jackson McVey (-185) def. Wesley Schultz (+150)
Shanelle Dyer (-900) def. Elise Reed (+600)
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