What India need to do to qualify for the WTC Final: Qualification scenarios explained

What India need to do to qualify for the WTC Final: Qualification scenarios explained originally appeared on Cricket News. Add Cricket News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

In his latest column for The Cricket News, Indian cricket expert Jamie Alter gives his take on India's chances of making the WTC Final in 2027, and what they need to do to get there.

As a busy phase of white-ball cricket ends — India next play T20Is in September — Shubman Gill's Test team heads to Sri Lanka for a two-match series.

The big question hanging over the next twelve months is simple: what does Team India need to do to qualify for the WTC Final?

India currently sit fifth on the WTC points table with a points percentage (PCT) of 48.15. To reach the final, they will likely need a PCT of somewhere between 64 and 68 percent — which translates to winning at least seven of their remaining nine Test matches.

Because of their 2-0 home loss to South Africa last year, India's margin for error is now razor-thin.

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Their remaining schedule is a mix of home and away assignments. In August, Gill's team tours Sri Lanka for two matches. In October, New Zealand arrive in India for two more games. Then, in the new year, Australia land for a five- match Border-Gavaskar series.

A clean sweep in Sri Lanka had been essential and with a win at Galle in the first Test, India finally seems to back on track. Heading into the match, Indian batters were a lost cause against the spinners and Sri Lanka tried their best to use that to their advantage. 

But Devdutt Padikkal's 167 in the first innings followed by a quickfire 44 made sure India had put enough runs on the board to be safe. After that it was upto India's own spinners who did what was expected of them.

Manav Suthar cracked through the Sri Lankan batting order to take 10 wickets across both innings in his second Test ever. For those who grew up watching the mighty generation of Sachin Tendulkar, Rahul Dravid, VVS Laxman and Virender Sehwag exit the Test scene, this game in Sri Lanka was a highlight reel.

Padikkal in particular was simply masterful taking the Sri Lankan attack of Prabath Jayasuriya and Ashita Fernando head on. His invitation in the squad due to Sai Sudarshan being injured was another plot point that worked in India's favour

But the job isn't done yet. The second year of still left and if India needs to progress, a win is needed. But even then the Men in Blue will have further competition ahead.

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So as this new season begins for India, the task for Gill and his team-mates is to rise above Sri Lanka's spin threat and set the right tone for the long road to the WTC Final.

Later, against New Zealand — who famously wrecked India's chances of reaching the previous WTC Final by sweeping them 3-0 — India will need to win at least one Test simply to avoid another series defeat.

Of everything on the calendar in 2026, those two Tests against New Zealand may be the sternest examination of this side. The scoreline from that 2024-25 whitewash still stings, and a repeat would all but end India's qualification hopes in one blow.

India have not won a Test in New Zealand since 2009 — when current head coach Gautam Gambhir was in his prime as a player.

Then, in 2027, when the Border-Gavaskar Trophy begins against Australia, India must win at least two or three Tests across the five-match series and manage draws elsewhere.

Gill's team can secure a WTC Final spot outright by winning all three of these series. But every game they lose increases their dependency on Australia, South Africa and New Zealand dropping points elsewhere.

Extremely tough, yes. But not impossible.

Can India qualify for the WTC Final? To share your view and for all the latest cricket news, opinion, and commentary, head to our Facebook, Instagram, and X (Twitter) pages or read more of Jamie Alter's thoughts here.