The Kansas City Chiefs are entering the 2026 season with expectations of a rebound after a disappointing previous campaign. An NFL projection has identified Kansas City as one of the teams best positioned to improve its win total, putting the franchise in a strong position to return to contention.
The Chiefs remain heavily dependent on the continued excellence of Patrick Mahomes, particularly after a season in which the offense struggled to maintain its usual consistency. Mahomes has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to elevate Kansas City when the team needs him most, making his performance one of the biggest factors in determining whether the projected improvement becomes reality.
Nov 23, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid watches warm ups against the Indianapolis Colts for warm ups prior to a game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn ImagesA stronger offensive supporting cast could also help the Chiefs make significant progress. Kansas City has worked to address weaknesses that limited its effectiveness, particularly in the backfield, where improved production could give the offense greater balance and prevent opposing defenses from focusing too heavily on the passing game.
The defense is another important component of the team’s potential turnaround. Kansas City has built a roster capable of competing against elite opponents, but greater consistency across four quarters will be necessary if the Chiefs are going to turn close games into victories and regain their position among the AFC’s leading teams.
NFL Expert Predicts Kansas City Chiefs’ Improvement in 2026Oct 19, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) gets ready prior to a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn ImagesKansas City is expected to show improvement during the 2026 NFL season. This can be seen in an analysis by Bill Barnwell for ESPN.
I don’t think there will be much pushback against the idea that the Chiefs will improve in 2026. How much they improve, though, might be the more meaningful discussion. And unless we see a dramatically different underlying level of play from this team, so much of that might come down to those one-score games and how things pan out in the final minutes of close contests. Winning half of such games would get the Chiefs back into the playoffs. And winning about 65% of the time — which is Mahomes’ new career rate in games decided by seven points or fewer — might push Kansas City back atop the AFC West.
The division will provide another challenge, with Kansas City needing to navigate a competitive AFC West while also facing a difficult overall schedule. An improved record will require the Chiefs to capitalize on favorable matchups and avoid the late-game setbacks that contributed to their struggles during the previous season.
Ultimately, the path to improvement begins with Mahomes and the offense finding their rhythm early in the season. If the quarterback returns to his best form and the supporting cast delivers more consistent production, Kansas City has a legitimate opportunity to produce a significantly better record and reestablish itself as a serious playoff contender.
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