“Talk is cheap. I’ve gotta go prove it.”
One of the final thoughts offered by Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning before the 2025 season opener against the Ohio State Buckeyes in Columbus, his first as QB1 in burnt orange and white, spoke to the meaninglessness of all the preseason hype surrounding Manning and the Longhorns — a preseason Heisman Trophy favorite and potential No. 1 pick in whatever draft he decided to enter leading the preseason No. 1 team in both major polls.
Five days later, the first play in Columbus saw Manning running head coach Steve Sarkisian’s preferred opener for his heavily-scrutinized quarterback, one he’d used during multiple appearances in 2024, a play-action bootleg to the right.
Shockingly, Manning spiked the pass well in front of his intended receiver, the first indication of the quarterback’s overall discomfort as struggles defined the first three games of of the season with 10 straight incompletions against UTEP marking the lowlight, sparking speculation about a potential shoulder injury that led to an awkward exchange between Sarkisian and a student reporter that ended with the Texas head coach noting that he doesn’t film reporters when they use the bathroom.
So, yeah, things weren’t going well.
Manning earned the trust of his teammates when he took a beating in the conference-opening loss to Florida in Gainesville, and Sarkisian did his part by stabilizing the season with a better-managed game plan in the upset win over Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl.
The inconsistencies remained for Manning, who completed less than 50 percent of his passes in the overtime win over Kentucky in Lexington and the regular-season finale against Texas A&M in Austin, a victory during which Manning went 8-of-23 passing (34.8 percent) for 53 yards in the first half.
Ultimately, though, Manning finished the season strong, throwing for 1,846 yards on a 60.3 percent completion percentage with 14 touchdowns and only two interceptions over the final seven games. On the ground, Manning added
The up-and-down season for Manning as a first-year starter gave way to an offseason impacted by ankle surgery and a preseason camp that has failed to live up to the continued outsized expectations placed on the scion of football’s royal family.
With the season opener looming in 10 days and another matchup against the Buckeyes the week after, Manning is once again centered in the discourse.
Will the real Arch Manning please stand up?
“He’s had a great camp, man. I’m pumped about it. I think his rapport with Ryan [Wingo] and Cam [Coleman] and Emmett [Mosley] is really high. I think his rapport with our running backs is really high — those guys are good players, and they can catch the ball, and that takes timing, that takes rapport, and so I’m very excited,” Sarkisian said this week.
“I’m excited for him. I think he’s going to play really well. Again, we’ve got two more weeks to to continue to sharpen up, but I’m very excited for where he’s at and the type of camp he’s had.”
In a follow-up question about particular areas where Manning could improve before the season opener, Sarkisian was notably evasive.
“Feel like that’s a loaded question,” Sarkisian said. “But I’m gonna go — get better.”
Over both scrimmages, Sarkisian offered reasoning for Manning’s underwhelming performances — call them excuses or mitigating circumstances, depending on one’s perspective.
In the first scrimmage, Sarkisian thought Manning’s accuracy and efficiency were impacted by the head coach approaching it like a preseason NFL game with limited early reps for the starting quarterback.
In the second scrimmage, Sarkisian said that Manning was dealing with some physical and mental fatigue from preseason camp, which has occurred amidst a brutal heatwave in Central Texas with temperatures consistently well over 100 degrees, and noted that his quarterback could use his legs more often, especially on third and fourth down.
Combined with those assessments from Sarkisian, preseason scouting intel on the Longhorns cast Manning in a light that raises concerns when taken in totality:
According to one current area scout I spoke to who was in over the last week or so, while he is a big fan of Arch as a prospect himself, that he did look pretty underwhelming in the practice that he said that he took in. That seems to be a common thread across the scouting community. If we can judge by those opinions, it appears Manning has had a pretty underwhelming camp in general, which makes it worth watching how fast of a start he can get off to in 2026.
Beyond Sarkisian’s generalized comments and sourced reporting, what do we know about how Manning is playing based on the actual evidence available?
The brief and incomplete glimpses into Manning’s performances during camp don’t necessarily provide evidence of high-level playmaking, though a long touchdown pass to junior wide receiver Emmett Mosley was not included among the second scrimmage highlights released through the collaboration between On Texas Football and Longhorn Network.
To start the two-play, 75-yard touchdown drive, junior wide receiver Cam Coleman ran a trademark stutter-and-go route that beat senior cornerback Warren Roberson, only for Manning to underthrow the pass and force Coleman to make a sliding catch instead of score a potential touchdown. Most notably, there wasn’t a deep safety close to the play, so Manning didn’t have to hit a window between the cornerback and a deep defender.
With an open receiver down the field, an overthrow is the worst outcome — it doesn’t allow the receiver a chance to make a play on the ball — but underthrowing it is a snapshot into some of the disappointment with Manning that has softened the buzz around his performance in preseason camp.
On two touchdown passes the Texas starter did throw documented by scrimmage footage, one was an apparent run-pass option glance route to junior wide receiver Ryan Wingo where a two-way go for Wingo beat senior cornerback Bo Mascoe. It’s a staple play across different levels of football and an easy throw for any quarterback when the read defender vacates the passing window.
The second was a high red zone toss to Mosley, who was wide open on the play after a miscommunication in the Texas secondary caused by defenders running different coverages, Sarkisian said on Monday. In the first scrimmage, a long touchdown pass from Manning to junior wide receiver Ryan Wingo came on another busted coverage.
Considering the misfires by Manning last season on simple throws, there is some value in making the easy plays.
“I’m gonna find you layups, right? You think back to some of those years with Quinn [Ewers], and it was like completion, completion, completion. Let’s go start the game. Okay, here we go. And I think that was an area where we really felt like Arch could take a really big jump was taking the layups. I know I use that term quite a bit, but when we can back pick and throw you a lob and get you a dunk to start the game, let’s dunk, let’s go do those types of things,” Sarkisian said on the On Second Thought podcast.
Whether Manning is consistently making those layups is questionable when several apparent interceptions during the first scrimmage stand out.
An end-zone interception by sophomore safety Jonah Williams ended the first drive — a ball thrown by Manning given the context provided by Sarkisian — when Williams used his range and ball skills to take away what the Texas quarterback surely thought was an easy touchdown pass when Mosley beat freshman linebacker Rocky Cummings in coverage.
On another, sophomore nickel back Graceson Littleton identified formation and tendency to jump a screen pass that he returned for a touchdown.
Even some of the best plays engineered by Manning have some caveats.
Early in the first scrimmage, Coleman made a contested catch against Williams down the sideline on a pass that had some flutter on it coming in. And a viral one-handed snag by Coleman early in preseason camp came on an even more wobbly throw, sparking a national debate about what initially looked like a tipped ball. Instead, on Colin Cowherd’s show, Sarkisian said that Manning was “under a little duress” when he made the delivery.
In 2025, Manning experienced regular struggles with on-platform and off-platform deliveries, so the visual evidence suggests that there could be some continued issues with his sequencing caused by mechanical breakdowns despite offseason work to correct those problems.
“We really went in on his mechanics and his fundamentals and where we can improve those things, and I think he’s done a tremendous job of getting that done,” Sarkisian said, noting that improved protection can make it easily on the quarterback, too.
It’s an area where the Longhorns should improve with the addition of Wake Forest transfer Melvin Siani playing at right tackle, allowing last year’s right tackle, junior Brandon Baker, to move inside to guard. On the left side, although sixth-year Western Kentucky transfer Laurence Seymore dealt with an “injury hiccup” in preseason, he’s a proven pass protector.
Across the rest of the offense, Texas added proven skill position talent to pair with important returning pieces like Wingo and Mosley.
“Okay, you bring in Cam Coleman, and that’s the easy one to look at — the playmaking ability and his ability to make contested catches and all that, but it’s a whole nother year for Arch from a rapport standpoint with Ryan Wingo. It’s a whole nother year of rapport with Arch with Emmett Mosley,” Sarkisian said.
“If you really think about the second half of last season, when Arch’s numbers got extremely better — touchdown, interception, completion percentage, all those things — who are the two of the main players in that? It was Ryan Wingo and Emmett Mosley, and so I think the rapport of those two guys as well. Adding all of that up, we should see a more efficient Arch Manning.”
The upgrades in personnel aren’t just one key aspect in evaluating how Manning might play this season — the Texas quarterback has already showcased his ceiling on numerous occasions, from his long touchdown runs at speeds many skill-position players can’t reach to well-thrown deep balls to elite pocket movement.
Right before that TD run, Arch managed pressure and delivered a perfect touch throw. https://t.co/igCjYkKT8hpic.twitter.com/GHbuUgfnxg
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) November 29, 2025In a matter of days, talking season will be over, and Manning’s progression — or lack thereof — will be on full display.
And the most likely outcome may be that Manning isn’t a generational talent, a belief largely engendered by his famous last name, or anything close to college football’s first flop.
The truth, as usual, probably lies somewhere in the middle, and as it regards the team’s national championship aspirations, the Horns are reliant on Manning growing into a really good college quarterback by improving his accuracy and maintaining an overall more consistent level of play.
So for Manning, it’s clear that there’s still plenty more to prove.
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