AFC West Over/Unders 2026: Building the Optimism-Proof Bunker

The AFC West likely won’t be the best division in football. But it may well end up being the most interesting when all is said and done. The specter of the Chiefs still looms large over the division, but they’re coming off of their first missed postseason in the Patrick Mahomes era. It had been since 2014 the last time they didn’t play in January, and 2015 since they last failed to win the division. Is the dynasty over? Not yet, not necessarily, but the rest of the teams in the division are lurking behind them with various blunt instruments and are looking to finish the job. The Broncos, your defending division champs, sit third in the division odds – that seems a hell of a slight for a team that reached the AFC Championship Game last year, and may well have won it if their quarterback had not exploded. They’re topped not only by the Chiefs, but by the Chargers, as Justin Herbert optimism remains a self-replenishing resource, and the combined might of Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel creates an optimism singularity that can almost be seen from San Diego. And then the Raiders are also here, but even they have some interesting rebuilding stuff going on, with Fernando Mendoza in the fold and, uh, Maxx Crosby again? Sure. It’s fairly wide open, which has not generally been the case for the AFC West. A changing-of-the-guard-type season. And it should be fascinating no matter who comes out on top – even if that just ends up being the Chiefs again at the end of the day. Remember, you’ve gotta double-tap the monster, or they’ll just rise to get you in the sequel. Remember, you can search for the best odds on these, or any other props, with our Prop Shop. Denver Broncos (9.5) Maybe it isn’t so wild that the Broncos aren’t favored to win the division. Before we even take a glance at the roster, take a look at their results from last year. 14-3! Great season. But Denver was 11-2 in one score games. 11-2! That’s a big red flashing warning light for regression. Not all one-score games are made equal, of course, but broadly speaking, a one-score game often comes down to some luck – one big play going one way or another. If a team was particularly lucky or unlucky in one-score games, that tends to be unsustainable; teams like that shoot back towards the median pretty quickly. Denver wasn’t quite as fortunate as you might think from that topline, but they were also 8-2 in games where they had a Post-Game Win Expectancy of 80% or less, most notably the Week 7 shocker against the Giants where they scored 33 fourth-quarter points. That’s not a sustainable plan. Their 14 wins flattered them a year ago; they were a 10- or 11-win team with a decent amount of luck on their side. To make up for that, the offense needs to take a step forward. It would be great if Bo Nix avoids the three-peat in failed completions. He improved some last year and a failed completion is better than taking a sack or throwing the ball away, but there’s still an element of dink-and-dunk to Nix’s game that makes it hard to really get excited about anything. Adding Jaylen Waddle counts as a splash, and RJ Harvey was solid as a rookie and could take a Year 2 jump, but the fate of the Denver offense does sort of boil down to whether Nix can get out of his own shell and run a deeper attack. The offense is broadly fine, and you can make noise with an average offense and very good defense, but that’s your 10- or 11-win team, not the 14-win team from a year ago. Sean Payton handing off playcalling duties is also surprising. Payton has only ranked 20th or worse in offensive DVOA one year in his career – maybe not that hard when you’re working with Drew Brees, but more impressive when you’re dealing with the high-kneeing remains of Russell Wilson. Instead, Davis Webb comes in as a first-time playcaller. This is concerning, both from a “is Payton checking out” standpoint and from having no idea how Webb will do. It might be just fine! Payton wouldn’t hand over the reins to just anyone, and Webb was on several head coaching shortlists this offseason. But it’s a concerning variable to throw into the mix for an offense that needs to figure out how to attack the middle of the field and generally be a bit more explosive. I’m also concerned about the loss of John Franklin-Myers and, to a lesser extent, Dre Greenlaw. Greenlaw missed half the season last year anyway, so the Broncos are comfortable with Justin Strnad filling in, but that’s still a blow to their depth, and Myers’ role as an interior disruptor wasn’t really replaced. That’s kind of part-and-parcel with the Broncos simply running things back this year; they didn’t have a first- or second-round draft pick to make an impact and, outside of Waddle, mostly didn’t stretch their cap space too far, either. The Broncos are a good team, and are counting on being able to stay that way without adding help from the outside. That’s always tough! And I suspect it will end up with a slide back in the win column, even if they’re not any worse on the field this season. Strongest Position: Offensive line. Garett Bolles and Quinn Meinerz are on the shortlist for very best at tackle and guard, respectively, and Mike McGlinchey is an excellent run blocker. Even the weaker links in Ben Powers and Luke Wattenberg are solid starters. Is it the best in the league? I think so, though I’d take a long look at Philadelphia and Chicago as well. Weakest Position: Tight end. The Broncos had a problem attacking the intermediate middle of the field, and that’s one reason they brought in Jaylen Waddle. Evan Engram has been one of the most overrated tight ends in the league for years, and Adam Trautman does not inspire much hope behind him. Biggest Question: How much will Waddle unlock the Broncos’ offense? On paper, adding a receiver who causes damage with the ball in his hands is a great pickup for a quarterback who likes to throw short. Giving Waddle a heavy diet of slants and quick outs and the like could help open the Broncos’ passing game up, and having anyone who can go over the middle of the field and catch the ball will be a boon. A healthy dose of YAC can’t hurt. Verdict: I’m going under 9.5, though I’m happier paying the -196 line to go up to “under 10.5” instead. I’ve never been a Nix believer, and while his floor is higher than I thought it would be in the draft, I’m afraid we’re going to get too much more of the dinking and dunking we’ve come to expect from him over his first to years. That, plus some regression, plus a first-place schedule, equals about 9-8 for me. Still a wild card contender, but a step back in the win column from 2025. Kansas City Chiefs (10.5) Declaring a dynasty dead is tough. You don’t want to be the fool out there suggesting that the best team of the decade so far is done and dusted after one bad season, only for them to revert to normal form and blow the competition away. The Chiefs were unfortunate to finish 6-11, losing three games where they had a Post-Game Win Expectancy of over 90% (the Chargers in Week 1, the Bills in Week 9 and the Titans in Week 16). They went 4-5 in games where they had at least a 75% PGWE. From their game-to-game performances last year, they should have been a 10- or 11-win team. It’s fair to say the Broncos and Chargers have caught up, but the Chiefs weren’t some run-of-the-mill double-digit loss team a year ago. After going 11-0 in one-score games two years ago, they went 1-9 last year – some reversion to the mean in the realm of four-leaf clovers and lucky rabbit’s feet should have the Chiefs as contenders again. Dynasty dead, my left foot. That being said… Patrick Mahomes has not been PATRICK MAHOMES for two seasons now. He last had double-digit passing DVOA in 2023, and hasn’t finished in the top 10 since 2022. There are reasons for this, of course – the Chiefs have not had good luck replenishing their offensive playmakers, relying more and more on Mahomes just doing some crazy Mahomes nonsense to keep them alive. There still isn’t a quarterback in football I’d trust more to pull off some crazy nonsense in the clutch than Mahomes, but we’ve reached a point where we need to see Mahomes have another great season to keep him up at the tippy top of quarterback mountain, rather than just assuming he’ll be there. The ACL tear is another scare. Yes, he’ll be back for Week 1, but it takes time for a player to recover their full mobility and to be comfortable in the pocket. Mahomes’ mobility and ability to extend plays to ludicrous degrees is his number one skill. Without it…well, he’s still a good quarterback, don’t get me wrong, but I’m not sure it’s enough to single-handedly elevate this entire offense like we expect PATRICK MAHOMES to do. The receiving corps remains basically unchanged, and is strangely regimented. Xavier Worth’s the speed guy, Rashee Rice is a pure slot option, Tyquan Thornton is the deep threat, etcetera, etcetera. It’s uninspiring and unimproved. Adding Kenneth Walker III to the backfield should help the Chiefs get something out of their running game, but I’m not convinced it fixes the fundamental issues the Chiefs’ offense has had. The defense is in mid-rebuild. They lost Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Bryan Cook, Leo Chenal, Mike Danna, Derrick Nnadi… admittedly, some of these are more “chose to get rid of” as opposed to “lost,” but it’s a defense clearly in transition. This is going to be a multi-year process, and there’s a lot of question marks and unknowns who are going to be asked to play major roles. And yet, Reid and Mahomes… Hrm. Strongest Position: This is where I could be hot takey or dramatic by pointing out that it is a significantly improved running back room with Walker and Emari Demercado. Or point out that the linebacker corps is the strength of the defense behind Nick Bolton and Drue Tranquill. None of those players are named “Patrick Mahomes,” though, so quarterback it remains. Weakest Position: Where is the pass rush going to come from, Steve Spagunolo? Unless R Mason Thomas is a statistical outlier, I’m looking at George Karlaftis and Ashton Gillotte, glancing back at their woeful blitz success rate and pressure rate, and I get worried. Biggest Question: Will the Chiefs be able to run the ball? It’s not a coincidence that the Chiefs haven’t had a top-10 rushing attack since 2022, either. If Walker can stay healthy and bring the same kind of tackle-breaking ability we saw in Seattle, that should significantly improve the floor of the Chiefs’ offense – and blunt the focus on Mahomes, giving him more space to do the crazy nonsense he is known for. Verdict: I’m going to go under 10.5, but I’m going to do so while closing my eyes and grimacing. I’d also be more than happy to pay the Mahomes Tax and take under 11.5 at -250, just because the idea of betting against him still gives me the shakes. I do think Kansas City will make the playoffs, mind you. I just don’t expect them to bounce right back to the 13- or 14-win teams we came to expect from them. Las Vegas Raiders (5.5) Let’s be clear up front – I’m not touching this line. Above and beyond not knowing how Fernando Mendoza will once he gets into action, we don’t know when Mendoza will even see the field. Trying to predict when Klint Kubiak will make the move from Kirk Cousins to Mendoza just adds a level of uncertainty on top of everything else. With no real evidence about Kubiak’s preferences, it’d just be a guess. I’ll still pick one way or the other for this article, because that’s the format, but my strongest advice would be to just stay away. I don’t really get bringing in Cousins. I mean, I get the concept of sitting your rookie for a while so he can learn on the bench – I don’t agree with it, but I understand why some people would want to do that. Your first overall pick should be able to get in a game and get some experience early, and it’s not like the Raiders are contending at the moment anyway, but a new head coach might want some experience in there to get things settled before breaking out the rookie. All right. Why Cousins, though? Frustratingly immobile behind an offensive line that is, at best, a work in progress, I don’t see what the Raiders get out of starting him. The only reason I wouldn’t pencil every Cousins game as a loss for Las Vegas is that they start with a home game against Miami, and even Cousins with no knees can probably handle that. Other than that, I think you’re safe in your survivor pools and the like to just keep picking against the Raiders until they bring in their rookie. Not that will do too much to help, mind you. There should be growing pains under Kubiak, though even simply having Madden auto-install an offense would likely provide better results than Chip Kelly did a year ago. Weirdly, though, there’s a lot of the same team as Kelly worked with a year ago. There’s been little of the roster cleanout we often see with a new head coach – look at Tennessee to see what that looks like. Instead, Kubiak’s vision is pretty clearly playing second fiddle to general manager John Spytek’s roster (and, if we’re totally honest, minority owner Tom Brady’s ideas). That’s not to say that Spytek and Kubiak aren’t on the same page and working with one another, just that there’s a lot of remnants left over from the Pete Carroll era that we may not have seen in a more typical power transfer. The Raiders are betting on better coaching getting more out of the roster they already have, with most of the problems last year being on brain trust rather than player talent. This isn’t wrong, considering the behind-the-scenes dysfunction the Raiders had last year. I just don’t get why they seem to feel this was an exclusive situation – it’s possible for the coaching to be bad and the players to struggle, believe it or not. It’s not that the Raiders didn’t bring anyone in or that they were devoid of talent – heck, they even kept Maxx Crosby, which will help the defense so long as the frustrations that caused them to want to split up six months ago don’t come back up again. But it just feels like moving into a house filled with someone else’s stuff. Sure, maybe there are some pots and pans that you can use, and you would never have thought to buy that kind of recliner. But the attic is filled with junk, and until some spring cleaning happens, you really can’t finish moving in. I guess we’ll try again with the 2027 Raiders. Strongest Position: The strongest positions on offense may be the least crucial, but you can build some gameplans around Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. There’s even quite a bit of depth at both slots. Mike Washington put up the second-fastest Speed Score ever recorded at the combine, rumbling to a 4.33s 40 while carrying 223 pounds. And you can do far worse in a world that wants to run a bunch of multi-tight end sets than having Michael Mayer behind Bowers. Weakest Position: Wide receiver. Tre Tucker, Jalen Nailor and Jack Bech are your likely starters, unless Dont’e Thornton Jr. can crack that group. And it’s a group that seems exceptionally crackable. Nailor as a WR1 seems almost like a dereliction of duty in 2026. Can the Raiders just run 23 personnel all year long? Biggest Question: When does Mendoza get into the lineup? That’s actually a more fun over/under than the Raiders’ win total this year, as it kind of feels like their season won’t really start until we see the future of the team actually take the field. The Raiders have a late bye week, and it seems unlikely we’ll wait until Week 14 to get Mendoza his first snaps. But their longest homestand before then sees the Raiders hosting the Bills and Rams – not exactly who you want to throw your rookie at out of the blocks. Honestly, the easiest stretch the Raiders have before December is right off the bat – Miami in Week 1, the Saints in Week 3, and at least the Chiefs game is at home. Verdict: I’m staying away, but as promised, I’ll make a pick – and go under5.5. This is just kind of a staging season between 2025’s disaster and what they hope is a promising 2027, and I don’t expect wins and losses to be how this team is judged. Los Angeles Chargers (9.5) Quick! Quick, over here! I’ve constructed an Optimism-Proof Bunker, and I’m afraid it’s going to get a hell of a stress test. The combined force of Jim Harbaugh and Mike McDaniel talking about Justin Herbert and the offense is enough to drive the sanest man mad. Don’t get me wrong, I like switching from Greg Roman to McDaniel. The early days in Miami with McDaniel’s offense were exciting and record setting, and Herbert is just a wee bit better as a quarterback than Tua Tagovailoa. I think that’s heading in positive directions eventually. But McDaniel is asking Herbert to play quarterback differently than he has before. McDaniel’s made a point of trying to get Herbert to throw quicker, giving him easier reads and simpler throws. I’m not sure Herbert needs the same sort of training wheels that Tagovailoa does, but an offense can get a big boost by installing easy button throws – and doing it without Roman’s patented and telegraphed screens and smokes will be a big plus. But I’m not so sure I see it working right off the bat. Early reports from camp is that the offense has been uneven. That’s to be expected from installing a new offense, and camp is the time to have it be uneven and find the bumps and lumps. McDaniel says that Herbert has been “everything that I’d hope and more,” but again, you have to adjust for the ~massive wave of positive vibes~ that Harbaugh and McDaniel emit like radiation from an exploding sun. McDaniel has admitted that it’s usually year two that people see a jump in his offense (though he’s including a lot of work as an assistant there, with Miami being the only time he was actually in charge). And when you’re changing someone’s footwork and rhythm and asking them to reconsider how they view the game, it makes total sense that there might be some rough patches along the way. I do think this will work eventually. And “eventually” might be October – or even right now, with minicamp having gotten the bumps and bruises out of the way. But it makes me a little nervous, especially when so many are predicting an offense that was 21st in DVOA last year to be one of the league’s best right off the get go. Look at the wideout position – Quentin Johnston, Tre’ Harris and Ladd McConkey. The Chargers had $45 million in cap space available, and opted not to bring in anyone – no A.J. Brown, no Stefon Diggs, nothing. That was kind of their philosophy everywhere, with their biggest offseason addition being… Tyler Biadasz? Charlie Kolar? There’s a lot of players going out, and just a batch of rookies coming in. Another year of complaining about Herbert not having enough help around him, then? Then you have Chris O’Leary coming in to coach one of the oldest defenses in the league, and a tough schedule facing a lot of teams coming off of extra rest and… Oh no, did you hear that? That banging sound? They’ve found us! Harbaugh and McDaniel are attacking the bunker with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind! They’re breaching the walls, I can’t hoolllllll Chargers will, of course, go 17-0 behind an MVP season from Justin Herbert. Who could possibly have it better than Justin Herbert, pretending to be Justin Herbert? Book it. Strongest Position: All joking aside, Herbert is the best thing the Chargers have going for them, even if the hype he sometimes gets does not line up with his level of success. He’s good! He’s very good! He was not the MVP last year, and that was a very silly first place vote. But he’s easily in the top 10 and is the straw that stirs the drink. I absolutely get why McDaniel would rather be a coordinator in Los Angeles than taking a crack at the head job in, say, Tennessee – if you’re a guy who draws up plays in his sleep, working with Herbert sounds fantastic. Weakest Position: Defensive age broadly, as half of Los Angeles’ projected defensive snaps go to players on the wrong side of 30. To pick a specific position, I’ll go linebacker – Denzel Perryman is old enough that he was a starter for the San Diego Chargers. That was a decade ago, people; I’ll give you a chance to let all your various joints calcify at the thought. Biggest Question: What on earth will the offensive line look like? The return of Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt at tackle will be a welcome change from 2025, but the entire interior line is being replaced – Kayode Awosika, Tyler Biadasz and Cole Strange look like the starters at the moment, with Jake Slaughter lurking in the wings. How quickly that line melds together – and, frankly, how good Strange and Awsoika actually are – might determine the fate of this Chargers offense more than anything McDaniel does. Verdict: Quickly, take the under 9.5 before they get you, too! Flee! Save yourselves!