Could Fernando Mendoza still be Raiders' Week 1 starter? Klint Kubiak has shifted the goalposts

Klint Kubiak started selling the idea of sitting Fernando Mendoza to start the 2026 season prior to the Las Vegas Raiders even drafting Mendoza, which came almost a month later.

"Ideally, you don't want him to start from Day 1," Kubiak said at the Spring League Meeting. "You'd love him to be able to learn behind somebody. That's in a perfect world. It doesn't always work out that way. Sometimes they have to play from Day 1, and it's our job as coaches to get them ready to go. 

"I think it does help the player if they can sit behind a mature adult and watch how they run the show."

A week later the Raiders signed Kirk Cousins, certified mature-adult QB. During OTAs and minicamps, Cousins was the starter, and Mendoza spent time with the second and third teams. Reports surfaced the Raiders might be willing to wait until midseason to start Mendoza, perhaps even not prior to the team's Week 13 bye. Kubiak's plan appeared to be taking shape. 

At the start of training camp, Kubiak couldn't have made it any more clear: Cousins was his guy.

"When we go out to practice tomorrow," Kubiak said on July 28, "Kirk Cousins is the starting quarterback. He's the guy. And he's going to get a ton of reps. And he deserves them, because he's played really good football."

The caveat?

"I want Fernando and Aidan [O'Connell] to push him."

A little more than three weeks later, Kubiak is now hedging big time. After Mendoza's somewhat shaky performance against the Houston Texans on Thursday – with Cousins sitting all game – the first-year head coach was not officially ready to anoint a Week 1 starter.

"We got another week," Kubiak said Thursday night. "I don't want anyone to be comfortable in their job."

Is Kubiak prepared to go with Mendoza far sooner than anyone projected, perhaps as early as Week 1? He's left us a trail of breadcrumbs, but where will it lead?

When things started shifting with Fernando Mendoza

The Raiders opened the preseason against the Arizona Cardinals last Thursday, with Cousins starting. He played one series, looked good (5-of-6 passing, 50 yards, TD) and led the Raiders into the end zone. Job done.

Enter Mendoza. He was in for four series (not counting the end-of-half kneel-down) and led two quality drives, playing into the fourth quarter. There were some clear and obvious high notes in the game. But most watching that night – and listening to Kubiak afterward – probably figured that the patient plan remained in place.

"Kirk's been getting the reps with the ones," Kubiak said. "… It's his job to lose." 

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15) and quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) work out during a joint practice with the Texans on Tuesday, Aug. 18, 2026, in Houston. (AP Photo/Ashley Landis)AP Photo/Ashley Landis

On Mendoza, Kubiak said: "I see an ascending player. We've just got to keep getting better." 

Kubiak left the door slightly ajar by saying all three quarterbacks "deserve first-team reps," yet Cousins still felt like the guy.

Then earlier this week there was a subtle change in the practice operation, with the Raiders meeting the Texans in joint practices: Mendoza receiving first-team reps. Cousins got the ball first in those sessions, but Mendoza had plenty of first-team run — something Kubiak hadn't previously done.

What might have felt like your standard get-the-kid-some work diligence with the No. 1 overall pick took on different context after the preseason game vs. Houston two days later.

Mendoza's pick-six against the Texans was the headline moment from the game and a reminder why the Raiders have slow-played his ascension. He held onto the ball, worked off his first read, stared down RB Mike Washington Jr. and threw it right into the arms of Texans LB Wade Woodaz. But Mendoza arguably made his best throw of the game just prior to the INT, and he followed that up with six straight completions.

Kubiak clearly saw something he liked in the rookie, not just in the game but with everything leading up to it, to take such a non-committal stance on who his starting QB will be. Or perhaps the coach was asking for more out of Cousins when Kubiak said, "I don't want anyone to be comfortable in their job."

It wouldn't have stunned anyone if Kubiak had stamped Cousins his guy postgame. But he didn't. Kubiak almost certainly knows what his plan is, but he's not ready to share it. If we take him at his "one week" word, the Raiders could announce their starting quarterback after next Thursday's preseason finale against the 49ers.

What the third preseason game could tell us about which QB will start Week 1

Cousins has played one preseason game and taken 10 snaps total. Mendoza played 31 snaps against Arizona and 26 more against Houston. At face value, it would appear that Cousins is the starter receiving light work and Mendoza is the young QB being fed major reps now knowing that he might have to sit for a bit to start the regular season.

But Kubiak is keeping the mystery alive for now. How he handles the preseason finale from a QB standpoint could tell us everything we need to know.

For established QB1s, the third preseason game is typically a non-event. They might play a series or two, or not at all. If that happens with Cousins on Thursday against the Niners, it might be a sign that the original plan remains in place: Cousins starting Week 1 against the Miami Dolphins.

If Cousins and Mendoza both receive scant snaps in that game, with O'Connell or undrafted free agent Jacob Clark playing most of the game, that also could be an indication that Cousins held off the rookie for now.

Repeating the first-game script, with Cousins playing briefly and Mendoza receiving extended reps, could be an indication that Kubiak still hasn't officially made up his mind. However, if Mendoza starts again and plays extensively, with Cousins sitting, then the competition might still be genuinely open.

Days can feel like weeks in training camp, especially when it comes to position battles swaying back and forth. And though some battles might truly be nominal in nature, it feels like Kubiak wants to collect as much evidence as possible — and there's still ample time for Mendoza to make his move.

Closing the gap might be difficult, but the wind at least appears to be at his back. The joint practice against the Niners will offer another high-leverage opportunity for Mendoza to continue stating his case, and don't rule out recency bias being a big factor. One strong week of practice, buttressed by a good showing in the game itself, could lead to Kubiak rethinking his plans late in the process.

But whether Mendoza is out there Week 1, it at least feels like the Raiders have softened their stance on giving the rookie an extended incubation period. That means Cousins likely must not only be sharp now to win the job but also stay sharp in order to keep it. After all, Cousins can only fend off Mendoza for so long.