On Friday night, the Michigan State Spartans will host the Toledo Rockets at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing, kicking off their 2026 college football season at 8 p.m. ET, broadcasted on FS1. This matchup not only signifies the beginning of a new season but also heralds the start of a new era under head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who was appointed following a disappointing 4-8 finish last year.
Fitzgerald, who took over after Jonathan Smith's departure, faces the daunting task of revitalizing a program that saw significant turnover, with approximately 40 players leaving due to the transfer portal or eligibility issues. The Spartans will look to establish a strong identity, focusing on a robust ground game as they seek to improve their standing in the Big Ten Conference, where they are projected to finish near the bottom. Their over/under win projection is set at 4.5, with many experts favoring the under.
Returning to lead the Spartans' offense is redshirt sophomore quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, who stepped into the starting role late last season. Milivojevic demonstrated resilience and skill, completing 64% of his passes with 10 touchdowns against three interceptions. His performance will be crucial as Michigan State aims to set the tone against Toledo, particularly if inclement weather impacts the game. The Spartans are favored to win by 10 points, and a strong showing from Milivojevic could signal a positive shift for the team.
The Toledo Rockets, meanwhile, come into this game following an 8-5 season in 2025, where they finished 6-2 in the Mid-American Conference. Their season concluded with a narrow loss to Louisville in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Rockets have also undergone significant changes, with former head coach Jason Candle leaving for a position at Connecticut. Mike Jacobs, who previously enjoyed success at Mercer, Lenoir-Rhyne, and Notre Dame College in Ohio, will be making his debut as Toledo's head coach. Jacobs boasts an impressive career record of 94-23, ranking him among the top active coaches in NCAA Divisions I and II.
As both teams embark on their respective journeys with new coaching staff, the game is expected to be a test of adaptation and execution. Analysts suggest that the Spartans will lean heavily on their running game, particularly utilizing UConn transfer Cam Edwards, to wear down the Rockets' defense. Establishing a strong ground presence will be essential for Michigan State to secure a victory and build momentum for Fitzgerald's tenure.
In terms of predictions, various analysts have weighed in on the expected outcome. Chris Solari anticipates a ground-dominated contest, projecting a 28-14 win for Michigan State. Shawn Windsor believes Fitzgerald has enough talent to edge out Toledo, predicting a 26-16 victory. Rainer Sabin expects the Spartans to find their rhythm first, forecasting a 28-17 outcome in favor of MSU. Meanwhile, Jeff Seidel emphasizes the importance of fundamentals and physicality under Fitzgerald, suggesting a 28-14 win as well.
As the Pat Fitzgerald era commences, the Spartans will look to make a statement against Toledo, aiming for a decisive victory that could set the tone for the remainder of the season. The matchup serves not only as a crucial opening game but also as a potential turning point for a program eager to regain its competitive edge in college football.
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