Trey McBride was one of the best values in fantasy football last season. Arizona has since changed coaching staffs and invested heavily in its backfield. His draft cost now sits at the 2/3 turn. Should fantasy managers pay that price for McBride in 2026?
Should I Draft Trey McBride in Fantasy Football?Last season, McBride was one of the best picks in fantasy. He averaged 18.6 fantasy points per game, which is legitimate elite WR1 production coming from a tight end who did not even cost a premium pick. He was the epitome of a league winner.
The key this year is to avoid chasing that production.
START PREPARING:PFN’s FREE Fantasy Draft Simulator
Here is what people are missing. McBride ran a staggering 683 routes last season. Measured against league averages, that is essentially 22 games’ worth of routes packed into a 17-game season. That workload is not a repeatable baseline. It is an extreme outlier.
Run the math, and it becomes obvious. If nothing changes about his 27.4% target share, his 24.7% targets per route run rate, or his 1.81 yards per route run, and we simply give him a normal 17-game workload, McBride lands somewhere in the 15 to 16 PPG range. That is still great for a tight end. It is not the difference maker he was in 2025, and it is certainly not worth a 2/3 turn selection.
The situation points in the same direction. Jacoby Brissett returns as the starter, but this is a new coaching staff, and one that spent the No. 3 overall pick on Jeremiyah Love while also signing Tyler Allgeier. That is an enormous investment in the running game. Teams do not make those commitments and then throw 683 routes’ worth of passes at their tight end again.
The pass-catching room around him has also improved. Marvin Harrison Jr. is healthy and Michael Wilson is more established than he was a year ago. Both of those things eat into the target share that made McBride special.
Add it all up and McBride is a long shot to come close to matching his 2025 production. To be fair, he does not have to. Even the regressed version is one of the two best tight ends in fantasy football, and I have him ranked accordingly.
The problem is opportunity cost, and it is substantial. Taking a tight end in the second or third round means passing on a wide receiver or running back at the exact point in a draft where those positions still offer real difference-makers. Meanwhile, there are 10 PPG tight ends available 10 rounds later. There are no 10 PPG wide receivers sitting around in that range.
FANTASY RANKINGS:PFN’s FREE Fantasy PPR, Half-PPR, and Non-PPR Rankings
McBride is my TE2 and the TE2 by ADP, so this is not a disagreement about the player. He deserves that ranking, and his production probably warrants the price.
I am simply not taking a tight end that early unless it is Brock Bowers. Even Bowers has to fall below his ADP before I push the button.
Katz’s TE Fantasy Rankings 2026- Brock Bowers | LV
- Trey McBride | ARI
- Colston Loveland | CHI
- Tyler Warren | IND
- Tucker Kraft | GB
- Sam LaPorta | DET
- George Kittle | SF
- Harold Fannin Jr. | CLE
- Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL
- Isaiah Likely | NYG
- Travis Kelce | KC
- Dallas Goedert | PHI
- Jake Ferguson | DAL
- Mark Andrews | BAL
- Juwan Johnson | NO
- Dalton Kincaid | BUF
- Chig Okonkwo | WAS
- Brenton Strange | JAX
- Hunter Henry | NE
- Kenyon Sadiq | NYJ
- Dalton Schultz | HOU
- Greg Dulcich | MIA
- AJ Barner | SEA
- T.J. Hockenson | MIN
- Oronde Gadsden II | LAC
- Terrance Ferguson | LAR
- Gunnar Helm | TEN
- Evan Engram | DEN
- Cade Otton | TB
- Colby Parkinson | LAR
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.
Leave a Comment