Look up "sunk cost fallacy" in the dictionary, and you might find a picture of the Cleveland Browns' 2026 starting quarterback staring back at you.
Deshaun Watson's contract looked bad when he signed it in 2022. It has aged even worse.
The financial burden Watson represents for Cleveland has made him and his deal one of the most notable sunk cost fallacies in the modern NFL. With the Brownsnaming him their starting quarterback for the 2026 season, Watson's contract details are worth noting as a part of the bigger picture.
After the Browns traded three first-round draft picks (and more) to acquire the former first-round quarterback from the Houston Texans, they signed Watson to a massive extension. One of the key details of the deal was how much guaranteed money was included: all of it.
Heading into the fifth and final year of the extension, the contract still holds an NFL record for total guaranteed money at signing. Meanwhile, Watson has played fewer than 20 games across the first four years of the deal.
Here are the full details of Watson's Browns contract and why it has aged into such a disaster for Cleveland:
Deshaun Watson contract details- Term: Five years
- Total value: $230 million
- Average annual value (AAV): $46 million
- Guaranteed money: $230 million
The $230 million in guaranteed money at signing is still an NFL record – by a long shot – in 2026, four years after Watson put pen to paper. Per Spotrac, only one other player in NFL history has even surpassed $150 million in guarantees on a contract extension: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Otherwise, guaranteed money at signing tends to be far more limited to allow for cap maneuverability and contingency plans in case of emergency (injury, off-field issues, etc.).
The total amount of guaranteed money isn't the only thing that's unique. Watson is also the only current NFL quarterback to have signed a contract with its value fully guaranteed at signing. Outside of the Browns' veteran, no other NFL quarterback has received a fully guaranteed contract since his rookie deal – which is required to be fully guaranteed for first-round picks in the league's collective bargaining agreement with the players union.
In addition, Watson's contract with the Browns makes him 11th in career earnings in NFL history. He's just ahead of Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, both Manning brothers and Philip Rivers.
Why Deshaun Watson's contract has become a sunk costEven with no context about Watson's on-field performance (poor) and availability (minimal), the extension he signed after the 2022 trade has aged poorly just by virtue of what makes it unique. No other team has given out that much guaranteed money at signing. No other player has gotten a fully guaranteed contract of that magnitude in an extension. Which means no other team saw what the Browns did as financially wise, and no other agent has been able to use Watson's guarantees as a benchmark for their own clients' extensions. It's an outlier – one-of-one in all of the worst ways (unless you're Watson).
That financial context matters in the wake the Browns naming Watson their starter in 2026. That's especially true given how he has played (and how much he has not played) since signing the deal.
The Browns have been unable to cut or trade Watson because of his behemoth contract's guarantees. Even heading into this season, the last season of his deal, Cleveland has no wiggle room. With so much of the deal restructured to push money into signing bonus allocation and void years, the Browns would have taken on $127 million – more than half of the total value of the deal – in dead cap if they cut the veteran earlier this year, per Spotrac.
As things currently stand, Watson will be responsible for more than $86 million in dead cap in 2027 once all of the money pushed into void years is accelerated onto the books. According to Over The Cap, the Browns will have until the second day of the 2027 league year to "terminate Watson's contract ... to take advantage of the post June 1 designation." The termination of the contract would be necessary – even though Watson will be an unrestricted free agent at that time – because it would allow Cleveland to spread that $86.2 million in dead cap across 2027 and 2028.
Meanwhile, on the field, four full years since inking a five-year, $230 million extension, Watson has played 19 games for the Browns. After more than 20 women accused Watson of sexual misconduct in 2022, he was suspended for 11 games to begin the season. In 2023, he missed 11 more games with injuries to his throwing shoulder. In 2024, he tore his Achilles in Week 7 and missed the rest of the season. In 2025, he re-tore the same Achilles in January and missed the entire 2025 season.
When he was healthy, Watson's performance was a far cry from the elite numbers he put up across four seasons with three Pro Bowl appearances in Houston to start his career. His completion rate with the Browns is 61.2% – a drop-off from the 67.8% he had in four seasons with the Texans. Watson's yards per attempt is down to 6.0 after it was 8.3 in four years in Houston. His touchdown throw rate is lower while his interception rate is slightly higher. He's taking sacks at a higher clip. Watson's passer rating is down nearly 25 points: 104.5 with Houston, 80.7 with Cleveland.
Last year, the Browns turned to – not one, but – two quarterbacks in the 2025 NFL Draft amid Watson's lack of availability and poor performance. Cleveland drafted Dillon Gabriel in the third round and then Shedeur Sanders in the fifth round. Both started the season behind veteran free agent signing Joe Flacco, but both had chances to start later in the season. Both are still on the roster entering 2026. So is Taylen Green, a sixth-round pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.
Despite all of that – injury history, lack of availability, poor play, off-field concerns, alternative (and younger) options on the roster to develop – the Browns named Watson their starter entering 2026.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why Deshaun Watson's contract makes him a unique sunk cost for Browns
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