Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Garry: Four Brazilian experts make their UFC 330 picks

Islam Makhachev and Ian Garry face off during the UFC 330 press conference. | 📷: Chris Unger/Zuffa/Getty


Striker vs. grappler. Size vs. strength. Ireland vs. Russia. The UFC 330 main event on Saturday has fans and analysts intrigued by the technical and tactical possibilities of a five-round championship fight between Islam Makhachev and Ian Garry.

The matchup presents a stark contrast in styles. Garry will look to use his length, movement and striking to control the fight at distance, while Makhachev figures to rely on his physical strength, pressure and elite grappling to bring the action to the canvas. How effectively each man can impose his preferred range could determine who leaves the Octagon with the belt.

Sherdog.com Rio de Janeiro correspondent Marcelo Alonso spoke to four Brazilian specialists, all of whom expect a difficult, competitive fight. Three picked Makhachev to remain undefeated, while only one predicted Garry would leave the Octagon as champion.

Fighting Nerds coach Pablo Sucupira sees a path for Ian Garry to upset Islam Makhachev
Fighting Nerds head coach Pablo Sucupira: “One thing people don’t realize is that there’s a big physical disparity in this division. There are fighters at 170 pounds who could fight at 155, but there are others who could fight at 185. [Jack Della] Madalena, for example, isn’t a big 170-pounder, while Garry is very big. [Carlos] Prates, who looked big against JDM, looked small next to Garry. Garry is much bigger than Islam. Unlike Madalena, Garry doesn’t load up on his strikes. He uses his lead hand very well to control the distance and angles. It’s not easy to take him down and keep him on the bottom. In my opinion, he has the right game to beat Makhachev.”

Ian Garry can shock Islam Makhachev, but three experts still back the champ
UFC welterweight contender Michael Oliveira: “Islam Makhachev has already been knocked out. I don’t see him making that mistake again by straying from his game plan. Sooner or later, he will get to Ian Garry and impose his game. I see Islam winning in the third or fourth round.”

Porrada Training Center head coach Ronny Markes: “Distance control will be a key factor for Garry. If he is able to prevent Makhachev from closing the distance and take him down, or frustrate his takedown attempts, he can surprise him. Because once the fight goes to the ground, Islam is on a different level. I watched him training here at the PI against an ADCC champion, a Brazilian who was more than 10 kilograms heavier, under grappling rules. It was an incredibly tough session, and Islam only lost by two or three points in that grappling sparring session. Islam has the cardio to fight hard for five rounds. If he manages to get the fight to the ground, he’ll create serious problems. Ian’s best chance is to use his reach and keep the fight at striking distance.”

Astra Fight Team head coach Marcelo Brigadeiro: “People are saying that this is a different weight division and that Islam is smaller, but I don’t see it that way. The Russian is used to training with heavier guys at AKA. He also had a hard time making 155 pounds. Now he will be stronger at welterweight. I believe Islam Makhachev will once again impose his game and keep the belt.”